How bad was this hand butchered? 4bet vs reg

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How bad was this hand butchered? 4bet vs reg

Preflop
Hero UTG opens to $1.50 125bb w/ KK
MP folds
Co folds
Bu (fish) calls
sb folds
BB (reg) squeezes to $7 125bb

Hero 4bets to $16.5
BB (reg) calls

Flop

As Ac 5d pot $33.5

Hero bets $8.5
BB (reg) calls

Turn 6h pot $50.5
Hero bets $17.5
Villain calls

pot $84
Villian donks $25 all in
Hero ???

I know river's never a call vs a reg. Pretty much 99.99% percent of regs will never donk jam weaker right, even KK? Regs likely a weaker reg due to donk jam. Believe there is some history and with reads that he is an overly aggro reg but only about 80% sure those reads match the SN.
And how bad is the turn 1/3rd? I mistakenly thought for some reason the pot would be left with about half pot size bet.

Also would 1/3rd size be a size that regs overfolds too such as a lot of pocket pairs KK-99 in a pot that leaves a half-pot size bet-2/3rd on river ? Making river bluffs likely to get called ? or the opposite?

5 Comments

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Jeff_ 5 years, 1 month ago

His calling sqz range should be tight: AKo+(some%),ATs(some%)+, all PP he decided to sqz. Calling Broadways is marginal and not sure if profitable. Vs that range you don't want to be betting turn: do people call PP again on the turn ? Only recs and even calling PP on the flop is pretty marginal and he should play fold or raise strategy.
All that because of on this board he is smashed and folding maybe 50% vs 1/4 cbet wouldn't be shocking.

Ixthyus 5 years, 1 month ago

I like your bet sizing on the flop but I don’t think you should barrel again because villain’s range is pretty strong after calling flop. I’d check and that’ll give you a lot more maneuverability on river.

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