Holy suckout

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Posted by posted in Mid Stakes

Holy suckout

BN: bet_on_life: $200
SB: krokodil510: $98
BB: VitinhO Dzi: $218.72
UTG: DO-NUTZZZ: $681.96
HJ: Hero: $223.40
CO: jurbellys: $144.78
Preflop ($3.00) (6 Players)
Hero was dealt T J
DO-NUTZZZ folds, Hero raises to $6, jurbellys calls $6, bet_on_life calls $6, krokodil510 folds, VitinhO Dzi folds
Flop ($21.00) Q 6 6 (3 Players)
Hero bets $13, jurbellys folds, bet_on_life calls $13
Turn ($47.00) Q 6 6 K (2 Players)
Hero bets $30, bet_on_life calls $30
River ($107.00) Q 6 6 K A (2 Players)
Hero checks, bet_on_life bets $151, and is all in, Hero calls $151
Final Pot
bet_on_life has 6 6 Hero has T J Hero wins $406.20

But of course I lose a cooler for 170BB in a squeezed pot versus someone who already 3-bets 17%, so I'm still over 100buy ins below EV.

This one was sick though.


6 Comments

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1followu 11 years, 3 months ago

i got ev problems like this aswell. this game is for many regulars just a fuking luckgame tbh due to varianc. not to imagine how killing the variance can be in games such as PLO.

i remember beeing 60 buyins under ev on nl25 and i never got those stacks back. "luckily" (:D) now im at limits where i dont give a shit about some nl25 stacks. maybe u can play 50k hands --- on nl20 or sth till this stops, cause at some point it will stop.



David Fu 11 years, 3 months ago

What's your thought process behind checking river? he has to be turning a large portion of his range into bluffs for him to bet river right? 

Chael Sonnen 11 years, 3 months ago

I block his flushes that are higher than 98hh, and I expect him to bet those himself.
Don't think he's ever paying off with a Q here, so I'd rather get him to turn something into a bluff.
When I c-bet multi-way and he calls and I bet the turn, I don't think he'd call with AQ anyway.

Don't see myself getting paid off here, so I'd rather let him to something into a bluff, although most of his Qx turned into a bluff need a heart, which he can't have because all the high hearts are gone.

Getting value out of the weaker parts of his range probably makes slightly more than him calling with the few hands he can have, which probably bet anyway once I check.

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