Hole card bb/100. Wat?
Posted by atton
Posted by
atton
posted in
Mid Stakes
Hole card bb/100. Wat?
Hello,
I analyze a lot lately bc I lost a lot in last months, I reviewed my game in a lot of possible ways. I lost all my confidence in my game, otherwise I wouldn't consider myself as someone who doesnt beat Nl200. Today just for sake of curiosity, I looked at individual starting hands just to see whats going on. First I just wanted to check out borderline hands, and big loser hands, so I asked someone, an 1k+ player to tell me his bb/100.
Hands from this year, 60% is NL200, other is Nl500, maybe 3-4% NL100.
KQs is 13bb/100, but not in the pic.
The pokerfriend I asked, playing 1k+,470k sample.:
in bb/100
AKs 316(lol, 3.6 times than mine)
AA 1047 (lol I won more with this actually)
AKo 192
KK 870
QQ 485
JJ 278
TT 196
99 151
AQs 125
AQo 103
KQs 100
So I'm very lost in this numbers. I mean is it possible that I play so bad to won as less money with those hands as I did? Difference is like KK 200bb/100, AKo 80bb/100, AKs 220bb/100. If I won KK like 200bb/100 more its half of my downswing. I play a tag strategy, 23/17 8.1 3bet, so its NOT like I play 16/12 3 on SH tables and putting in AKs 100bb preflop and expect to see a profit.
Furthermore, those are my biggest loser hands:
A3s for example I went allin preflop 3 times, so its not like I 3b/5b every instance with lot of hands, 1time was only 8bb lol. With T9s is like I put in 1 smallblind and then always fold lol.
Thanks!
Cheers,
Atton
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fwiw, it take tens of thousands of hands for your actual EV to converge. The website EV plus plus used to have a variance calculator graph which visually gave interesting answers to these questions -- but it's been down for a couple years now (at least as far as I know). There might be an alternative that I'm not aware of. The point is that there's probably some mathematical way to calculate the liklihood of you playing worse compared to your friend, but my guess is that there's too much variance given your sample size for it to be meaningful.
http://www.devra.eu/p/poker-variance-calculator.html I'm not sure if the math behind it is the same, but it seems fairly reasonable.
Although I generally agree with Santaur, the samples for the big numbers (esp. AK, AQ) seem significant enough to dig a bit deeper. Might it be that you pay off a little bit too light postflop?
What I´d do next is to set a filter for hands that did or did not go all-in pre (start with the mentioned holdings, AK/AQ). Then compare those numbers. Did your friend stack off pre with significant higher equity than you? Or are those numbers comparable but your friend won more money postflop? Then maybe filter for hands where you have TP and lost ... did you lose way more than your friend in bb/100? What if you had TP and won - did you buddy win more?
If your friend accepts working in that detailed way with you, that´s the way I´d go.
I also think the payoff rates of your big hands depend a lot of your play style. If you play a VPIP of 35% you'll get way more action and thus a higher winrate on your nut hands than if you just played 18% VPIP.
I guess we play the sameish style. Style can give difference, but as far as the difference beetween the stlye is not like 35vpip VS 18vpip, I can't 'blame' it when the differences are so big, like AKs is more than 3x, AKo,AQo almost 2x.
Biggest problem is that the samples are too small to draw conclusions from because the std dev on these strong hands is quite large (mine is over 300 for AA and KK). Another problem is that he is playing in tougher, more aggro games and that is going to drive up the value of his strong hands while reducing the value of his mediocre hands.
Maybe fold K2s Q4s and 63s in CO if you're raising those there? But +1 to all the sample size yada ya
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