Hero fold my boat facing river donk overbet?
Posted by Hoothoot
Posted by
Hoothoot
posted in
Low Stakes
Hero fold my boat facing river donk overbet?
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50 (6 Players)
BN: $71.49 (Hero)
SB: $122.76
BB: $50.00
UTG: $50.00
MP: $51.42
CO: $98.90
SB: $122.76
BB: $50.00
UTG: $50.00
MP: $51.42
CO: $98.90
Preflop
($0.75)
Hero is BN with
Q
A
, , , , ,
Flop
($11.25)
2
A
Q
, , , ,
Turn
($19.17)
2
A
Q
Q
, ,
River
($39.21)
2
A
Q
Q
K
50NL Zoom, villain is from Canada, no reads otherwise. KK fits villain's line perfectly, AA would make some sense too even though that's only 1 combo. I don't see him c/c'ing two streets OOP with JT. I block KQ and in any case he prob doesn't 3bet many combos of that in the first place. I even block nut FD, and again he wouldn't play a FD like this anyway.
As far as I can see, this spot is a prime candidate for a monster laydown.
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Sick spot but I think we have to call since it's possible for some villains to 3b KQo IP. If he has KQo and KQs I think we have to call since we can find hands in his range he's value betting that we dominate.
There are 3 combos each of KQ and KK. Since he's always 3betting KK and only sometimes 3betting KQ, KK is clearly the more likely. Add in 1 combo of an oddly-played AA, and this becomes a clear fold.
never folding, and not even considering, how you can fold such strong hand? KK make sense but either way you lose vs them ( you will shove), he can have same AQ, or just be spazzing.
I don't think it is right strategy to donk/shove river with any part of his range/ so possible weak player
If you fold this hand then you are quite simply folding way too much and are extremely exploitable.
Yes it's an exploitable fold for sure. But it seems to be a timely deviation from balanced play given my reasoning above. It's an exceptional circumstance to be folding the near-top of my range.
you have 0 reads and never saw villain before and folding ? I disagree that this line is always top of the range (from opponent ofc)
When you posted your question were you looking to form a debate and try to figure out if it was the right play or just convince yourself that you were right? Because this is the first time I've ever seen anyone post a hand history and then tell the interlocutors in the thread that they made the right play with no equivocations.
The only "read" is that he is from Canada.
Haha well I've succeeded in starting a debate, that's for sure. As for the other part, I'm yet to hear a compelling counter-argument to my reasoning, which has only reinforced my belief that I made the right decision. So far I've heard two criticisms that I can easily refute.
Villain could have KQ.
Response: Equal combos as KK, and a less plausible line.
My fold is exploitable.
Response: I agree that it is, but that alone doesn't necessitate calling. Villain doesn't know what I'm folding, so there's very little chance for him to exploit me in the future.
So... I'm a low stakes PLO forum reg just wandering into NLHE to see what's going on here, so take my feedback with a grain of salt. However, I do have hundreds of thousands of hands of winning NLHE experience, FWIW.
You say you have absolutely no reads on villain, which is fine. But that means I'm treating them like the random player they are, and I'm not leveling myself into what is, to my mind, a pretty nitty fold.
I don't know why you're so sure that KK is reasonable here. KK calling two streets when you have plenty of aces in your button flatting range is... ambitious. I don't know. My NLHE experience is kind of dated; maybe folks just never fold KK on an A-high board these days.
However, people love shoving broadway in NLHE, in my experience. And—especially for a random player that we have no reason to assume is either competent or incompetent—this line fits JdTd or even just JT without diamonds much better than it fits KK. This may even be AK, or a far weaker ace (Ad*d?) that thinks they're bluffing you off of a chop when you don't have AK or AQ.
This can even be 22! Heck, Q2 if villain is goofy enough! It can even be something EVEN goofier! You have no reads on this player! (Oh, and KQ is possible, too. I just don't find it super probable, but we beat it anyway, so whatever.)
Narrowing villain's range to KK-and-only-KK here is just unreasonable to me, especially with no reads/history on your opponent.
My 2c from PLO-ville.
I don’t care about over folding because this spot happens never. I think the flop and turn sizing are too small. You have the nuts he has a bluff catcher, Polar ranges perform better with big bet sizes. You are leaving value on the table with your bet sizes.
I'm more concerned he is from Canada. I think that's a powerful read. He may have chronic traumatic encephalopathy from hockey or couldn't remove his finger from the mouse because his fingers were sticky from maple syrup. He could also be from Quebec and thought he was hitting fold because he speaks French.
All this taken into consideration, it is a must call.
Um, as a guy who plays these stakes and makes dumb decisions, this villain could have (in addition to some better value hands), any two diamonds and just bluffed that river thinking that the board favored his range.
What I'm saying is I could see myself punting off this money with low diamonds like 56--89 etc if I were villain and on tilt
The board absolutely favors his range as there are two queens on it and he is from Canada. Elizabeth the (2)nd is the Queen of Canada and has been since 195(2). If he was from America it's a snap call. It is also disconcerting that the Canadian flag is red and both Queens on the board are red. There is also an Ace of Spades on the board -- emblematic of death -- which leads me to believe it is a warning not to call because it could be the final blow to your bankroll.
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