Hero call or hero fold ?
Posted by RunItTw1ce
Posted by
RunItTw1ce
posted in
Low Stakes
Hero call or hero fold ?
50NL not sure if they are shoving worse here. I think hands like J9 just call as well as hands like K9s. Anonymous pool, so no reads. Is a straight here good here 27% of the time (break even)?
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The problem is there is only 1 combo of K6s, so unless the player pool is c/c KT/KQ on the flop, you can't really fold imo.
Other combos of KQ KT that also just call preflop and call flop. Don't think two pair always raises, then on the turn, not much of a point to raise if I'm bluffing. I think it's really close, not sure if there is a clear answer in either direction here, not without stats. Given my river size, I don't think it's ever a bluff. And if it was a bluff has to be something like QT. If KJ K9 J9 just call the river, then I am leaning towards a fold. Sounds gross, but probably correct. Just not sure I can think this rational with a s short time bank.
Your hand has turned into a bluff catcher because I doubt pool is value betting with worse. I don't think this line is taken as a bluff hardly ever at this stake. It sucks but I think it is just a fold. Nothing about your sizing would induce a spazz raise. I don't think this line is a bluff but 10-20% of the time.
I see 2 lines of playing this river. If you are agressive - B/F. if you prefer the passive line just check back. I'd personally prefer the passive line here for a few reasons.
1) - Hate getting stacked in a single raised pot with s/d value
2) - Beside a K what am I extracting value from? is he rasing K8 as a bluff when you can hold all straights and fulls? seem ambitious.
I am assuming he had K10c or offsuit or 66?
Its def a mistake to check back.
I think that on this river we want to bet a very polarized range and so we want to bet very big. This hand does not quite make the cut into that range imo so I would check back otr.
As played I think we have a very easy fold, and calling AJ there is probably extremely -EV against a very nutted range.
I'd only call KK, KQ, KT, QQ. AK is close because it blocks villain's KQ/KT but I still think it would be fold as well. TT is probably also a fold.
We have to take into account here imo that Villain is on a heavy range- and nutdisadvantage. So do we really expect players to bluff into a range that basically is full of nuts?
So agree partly on the thoughts of @Aroma.
But i would highly disagree that this is a checkback OTR. AJ is way to strong here to consider this vs anyone...
So im in the B/F team as well
I don't think that against BB's range the EV you're getting by betting this river is any higher than the EV you get by checking.
This is not a standard BU vs BB hand because BB called a 4x iso preflop. Therefore his range is probably a lot tighter than if he was defending against a normal BU steal.
I'm curious to know what range you put BB on and what kind of range you expect to pay a river bet.
You might be right that his range is tighter.
That doesnt mean that betting doesnt gain EV....Checking this back is a huge mistake imo as Villain still has hands that can call here:
a decent amount of weak suited Kx, J9, KJ, QJ, QT and maybe even worse (like AT)
We dont have any info on villain and in a vacuum this is a 100% bet OTR for sure
Im really tripping over this hand because idk the outcome. I agree that checking back might be a mistake (but is also one that leaves money on the table instead of losing $). I am personally fine with that. (exemple: I recently saw the Tom Dwan AQ hand on HSP vs 109 where he checked back a boat because there was no value to be made).
A couple of questions that I have are the following:
- On turn as Hero no longer has the nuts, is it a mistake to check back turn and on river if Villan bets to just call?
- for the B/F team - if Hero range as Raoul pointed is so nutted, isnt just best to shove river?
I'd love RunItTw1ce's input on Villan's stats and outcome - would be funny if it was a silly 87d bluff.
I think that a shove with this hand would be a mistake, because when you shove he will fold hands that might call a smaller bet. And about the check back turn I think it would be an option only with a diamond in our hand.
So far every sim I ran for this spot with different ranges for BB tells me to check river. And unless I node lock villain into being a massive station it does not change the result. And even if BB calls with all combos of QT, KJ, K9, J9 etc. the solver still wants to check back river. I remain unconvinced that this is 100% a bet in a vacuum.
But it's totally possible I'm wrong or doing something wrong in my sims.
And btw. I'm not saying that you are wrong or that I am right. I'm just genuinely curious about trying to figure this spot out because it is very interesting to me.
Aroma
This kind of a misunderstanding. If heros range is very nutty, i basically dont expect any bluffs in villains x/r range and so we would need to defend super tight.
Thats the reasoning for me to fold OTR.
Kuduku
Don’t worry, its an interesting conversation to me as well :)
So i plugged this into gto-wizard. Unfortunately wizard doesnt offer limping for postflopscenarios and so ranges might be skewed heavilly here.
Will work a bit with GTO+ later with other ranges maybe.
But for wizard vs a standard defending range (vs 2.5x open) this is even an overbet/shove OTR with AJ:
Kuduku could not agree more. Its been often a line I have taken believing I have the best hand and got stunned on the river when villan shows up with a better hand.
RaoulFlush
I'm looking forward to see what you come up with. Maybe we can compare the trees in gto+ and see if & why we arrive at different results.
Aroma
Haha yeah it's a weird feeling when the pot gets pushed the wrong way after checking back such a strong hand. It's technically a win but it doesn't feel that way.
This riverbet seems to be thinner than i have thought....
So this is BU-range i assigned for isiong (dark areas are weighted 50%):
This could be a defensrange from BB (maybe i missed out AQo here:
So Kuduku: your assumptions on this spot seem to be right. EV for most AJ-combos not so different between betting and checking OTR and the preference moves in the checking-direction.
But i guess slight different assumptions on ranges could have a huge impact on this spot. same could be valid for any kind of exploit here.
Thanks RaoulFlush & Kuduku!!
I would have checked back as Villan line seemed suspicious, and another thing I am always thinking when I have a value hand but not the nuts, is what would I call with and what would I fold. In this particular spot I'd fold all straights and call all boats.
Another line I had in mind was if it would have been a good idea to overbet the turn to charge draws and check back the river?
Anyway for me as the board paired is no longer an all streets value hand.
everyone pulling out the solver sims for ri2...
id fold
I don't know what you are insinuating but I hope you don't mind if I point you in the right direction by mentioning that the reason we are "pulling out the solver sims" is not to find out whether to call or fold against villain's check/jam. We're trying to figure out if a simple value-bet OTR is good/bad/meh against villain's range.
was just a joke about the thread being so active for ri2
TPLancaster I was surprised myself to see such a discussion. Happens from time to time when people disagree on a decision though. Not often you see a straight not being a clear value bet vs a passive line when flush misses.
Excellent discussion. I was thinking AJ would be a bet on the river and Im still on that boat but I dont like my sizing. I think I should be closer to half pot instead of 3\4. I was thinking in game AdJx or AxJd could bet fold and call without a diamond but both are pretty close. I am definitely calling boats TT+ here vs this pool as they will show up with KJ or J9 AJ themselves at times.
When I ran this in wizard myself it was folding to XR. I do think KJ and J9 never fold vs a bet and if person is a sicko then I guess KJ would become a bluff shove? Blocking boats and AJ? Thinking of Krabs video for HSNL. He mentioned turning 6x into a bluff on a A66QK board.
Im going to go with best option on river is 25-50% sizing and fold to a XR. Only call off boats as best option. Some AQ can still call as well. People with AQ no diamond given smaller river size will talk to themselves into unblocking diamonds so they call.
I can see checking and betting both close to 0EV on the river or same EV rather. But I think against low stake players they make enough calling mistakes to nudge bet fold into higher ev. I dont expect many bluff raises.
Spoiler BB had the nuts KQ.
On Wizard I played around with a couple of different sizes because you can't solve for the UTG open limp. I used a 2.5 open CO vs BB here, so BB will have a wider range, but went with a 7bb into 5.5bb cbet to give a more practical continue range and get close to the size of the pot. Then used a 13bb into 19bb turn size, so I am off around 5bb on the river. The AdJs or AsJd combos seem to be checking back 60-80% of the time blocking the diamond draws that call / call / fold. Appears my combo like the 76% river size.
Then looking at the EV of each option is rather small differences.
I guess it depends on the RNG? Hindsight I guess if they don't 3 bet KQs preflop I need to give them more nutted combos such as TT as well. Unfortunately replayer doesn't show RNG.
RunItTw1ce This is Iggy right? I would just down bet like 12 to 16bb intending to fold to x/r. We get value from the occasional AK/KJ/K9/Kx/J9.
Also, I would bet bigger on that wet flop in this pool.
100% agree. Just added more hot keys so I can size up with certain hands where I unblock 2 pair or flush draws and have strong value etc.
Btw in BB spots which hands and how often would xr the flop? Only sets and top 2?
Mix in some combo draws QJd? Ad9d? QdTx? NFD isn't too far behind whatever opponent has.
Will u stack off with toptwo OTF if opponent 3b?
I dont think that we should do a lot of x/r on this broadway flops. I dont think its a bad idea to x/c with top2 and only x/r straights and some combo draws. When you get 3bet otf you are def not happy to stackoff with KQ because you are at best flipping.
Most of the time yes, but I don't play perfectly. Would depend on opening ranges. Stacking off top 2 vs UTG or MP is more suicidal. Start stacking off vs BTN / CO they have worse 2 pairs and more combo draws in their range like Jd7d that will cbet and call a raise or just shove their equity. Just depends on how wide the ranges are. All positions are going to have AJ in them. So need to make sure opponent has some worse hands to call with.
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