Help with stats and river decision
Posted by DontRunItOnce
Posted by
DontRunItOnce
posted in
Low Stakes
Help with stats and river decision
Blinds: $0.10/$0.20 (5 Players)
BN: $20.00
SB: $46.39 (Hero)
BB: $28.96
UTG: $23.96
CO: $35.35
SB: $46.39 (Hero)
BB: $28.96
UTG: $23.96
CO: $35.35
Preflop
($0.30)
Hero is SB with
K
J
, , ,
Flop
($1.30)
K
Q
4
, ,
Turn
($3.30)
K
Q
4
6
, ,
River
($8.30)
K
Q
4
6
8
,
560 hands on this guy playing this guy who's playing 27/22/7 over 560 hands. His post agg% of 45 with flop turn river breaking down to 46,50 and 36. and a flop, turn river cbet of 57, 64 (11 hands), 75(4 hands). Now from my very little understanding of these numbers he is continuing pressure on the river which means he has more bluffs in his range with his value hands, which then makes it more learning towards calling off a bet light. But I dont have a clue, thats why Ive posted.
Loading 3 Comments...
Standard to the river. OTR, you dont beeat any value bets of his, you block his bd flushdrwas and his JT/ AJ hands, so I would fold.
I don't know how relevant blocking the Jc is. A lot of players prefer bluffing without any club in this spot so against those KsJs, KdJd might be a worse bluffcatcher.. not sure about nl20.
I'm also not sure about your range(because I tend to 3bet only vs 3x early open), but I think you should just defent enough of your range OTR, since he can definitely bluff enough here(unless you have a read that he won't). You might need to defend this combo too, depending on how many FDs, Qx you will have.
preflop is meh imo, 3b or fold in my book...seriously avoid flatting oop with marginal hands vs strong ranges.
the rest looks wp if you fold otr, if you're scared of being exploited, just remove xr and donkbet ranges and xc with KQ combos (or even 44 if you flat that preflop)/include ak in your flatting range pre. This is assuming that even the most aggro nl20 regs are underbluffing. If you're playing a really good reg (560 hands is not enough to start adjusting to river bluffing frequencies imo) you probably need to call (but then again, I wouldnt flat KJs vs those pf)
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