Help me think about this standard cbet/checkback spot (Oxota/BritneySpears video)
Posted by sirin
Posted by sirin posted in Mid Stakes
Help me think about this standard cbet/checkback spot (Oxota/BritneySpears video)
This is actually from the very start of the video where Daniel Dvoress reviews BritneySpears playing 1/2 zoom, but I thought I'd post it here because the video is a few months old so I doubt many people are reading the thread.
The hand is at 1.38 but you don't need to look at it, its a very standard/easy to describe spot.
We open AKs UTG, the SB defends, and we see a flop of Q53 two tone, with none of our suit.
The small blind checks back, and Daniel says this is a good/standard checkback, saying we can showdown against some parts of his range, such as ATs,AJ type hands, which is obviously true, and then he says this has to be one of the worst type of hands we could have in terms of our ability to barrel.
I understand that we can't just go crazy barreling every time we have a range advantage, but if we look at this spot, villain will have maybe 17 combos of QJs+/AQ/QQ, maybe a little less if he sometimes 3bets AQ or QQ, maybe a little more if QKo is in his flatting range, although that seems fairly loose to me. Then we don't know if he flats 55 and 33 here, so lets give him 3 combos of low sets.
Now if we just look at the pocket pairs we should be able to fold out either now or on the turn, ie JJ-66, that's 36 combos. I think the fact that SB calling ranges vs UTG are so heavily weighted towards mid pairs is possibly important here. Then there's hands we're ahead of but which we would definitely like to fold out, like JTs.
Looking at our hand, we block a lot of his calling range on the flop, and we have outs against his top pair hands, some of which are tainted, sure, but its not like we're going for 3 streets if we turn an A.
So just in general I feel like this is a good spot to start betting, even if we're betting a bit too much, since it would take a huge amount of hands played for villain to notice we're playing this spot particularly aggressively given that its fairly rare and that we have a strong range.
Am I thinking about this in the wrong way somehow?
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