Hand from live $10$25 game...Looking for feedback on all decision points
Posted by 82off
Posted by
82off
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High Stakes
Hand from live $10$25 game...Looking for feedback on all decision points
Utg +2 loose passive (spot) opens $75
Lojack good pro, tight aggressive calls
Highjack old man, tight aggressive calls
Hero in cutoff (5K effective), fairly active but tight aggressive image 3B to $350 KQcc
Btn calls (I'm blanking on who this was)
BB well known pro, very solid image, not bullying table, playing a strong range, 4bets $1000
folds around to me, take about 30 seconds, consider shoving, BB and Btn have me covered... feel like Btn would have 4bet any premiums so not too worried about him coming over the top with a back raise. Think BB range could include all suited Ax in this spot, 99+, all AKoff, possibly AQoff... I'm getting a good price ($650 with $1935 in middle) on a call and like I said already, not too worried about Btn coming over top. I call, Btn folds.
Flop ($2585) 10h8h6c
Villian leads $1100
I take about 30-45 sec and shove a little more than 4K.. thinking all Ax that aren't hearts will fold.. I think all A10 will fold.. 99 fold and JJ maybe, AhKx fold.... A6hh and AJhh+ will call.. QQ+ calls... obviously 88 and 1010 call...
I also feel like my range is very strong here... 88, 1010, QQ+, and AQhh+
Any thoughts? To those of you that are good at combinatorics or have pio can you tell me if my assumptions are good.. is my line good? Do I put villain on too wide of a range pre?
Loading 12 Comments...
Hard to take this seriously. Postflop is total spew, what paired hands do you expect him to fold to a ~4x shove? You can't just make wild bluffs at low SPRs in already large pots just because your overall range is strong.
Preflop is whatever, all of the decisions seem reasonable, would probably play the same. Calling the 4b is close I think because your hand will often be dominated MW against these ranges. You need BTN to come along a decent % for flatting vs. BB to be good, but you also need BTN's range to not be super AQ/AK heavy to avoid significant domination issues. So idk. Also comes down to how well rolled you are for this game and what kind of variance you're willing to accept. I make a point of not really folding much preflop in live games that I'm well rolled for.
I don't think you should be making in game decisions based off of variance and your bankroll. Your decisions should be made purely off of EV. A losing play with a small bankroll is still a losing play with a big one. In addition to that, if you're playing scared money in 10/25, the regs should notice that and they'll run you over
Yes I definitely agree for the most part and the bankroll reason is a smaller consideration hence why I mentioned it as an aside at the end of my post.
There are certain high variance spots though and flatting a pretty large cold 4b with KQs and a player behind (who cc'd the original sqz) is a pretty textbook example.
I can run it in pio for you but I'm confused about your assumptions. You say you have TT and QQ+ but don't mention JJ? Do you jam that pre? Or did you just not consider it a strong hand? Also, you said you had 88 pre, but are you 3-betting that? It seems fine at some frequency but this is live, so randomizing is hard and mixed strategies are used less often by pros. If you could also outline the rest of your range that'd be nice as well
I can also run a script so you can see your EV of calling each hand pre if the BU wasn't there (and we can then discuss how the EV's change with the BU)
i always love your analysis's any clarity thank u mitchell
No problem man, happy to help :)
Lol love how Mitchell comes in to offer and help but op just disappears
This is because many live players just don't see the value of Pio. They don't see why you would want to buikd a range based on one specific spot. Many of them just say "well it's not likely ill be in that spot again so why bother?"
Do you mean they don't understand it from a theoretical perspective or a study perspective? Like, do you mean they don't understand the value of playing range based poker, or they don't understand why you'd study just specific hands using pio solver as they'll never be in that spot again?
Best I can assume is that BB has a well balanced 4bet squeeze range. Info on BTN can shift this somewhat. The idea of jamming pre seems pretty bad to me. I view preflop as fold>call>shove.
Post flop I am not a fan, your perceived range is draw heavy. Sure he's forced to fold AKo/AQo but I don't think this makes up for his value range that snaps you. I view the move as mediumlarge spew on the scale of spewy-ness.
Mitchell Reid the latter is my opinion. Obviously not all live players but many of them don't go over HHS like online players do. This could likely be because they don't have access to perfect HHs or the online tools like pio CRev flopzilla etc. I imagine some use the pokerstove equiv for range analysis but that's it.
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