Hand Analysis: Bovada 25 NL
Posted by bcas1984
Posted by bcas1984 posted in Low Stakes
Hand Analysis: Bovada 25 NL
UTG: $85.65
MP: $27.52
CO: $12.41
BN: $28.85
SB: $24.75
Rake is $2.00
Sorry, I typed a lot of comments the first time I went to post this hand and accidently closed the tab.
So, I'm just going to get into the solver study here.
The TLDR was, I think I'm prone to over-bluffing with these flush draws in spots where my value range is pretty narrow.
I'm going to get into the solver now, but I'm ignoring the limper because GTOWizard doesn't have this spot multiway on the flop. There will also be some bet-sizing discrepancies' that I'll need to think about. I'm sure it makes some difference but hopefully it's marginal.
Pre-flop
I don't think I considered raising this hand. I thought it played well post-flop but in general I think I probably under 3bet out of the BB. My guess is that against a bigger bet size the solver will 3bet at a slightly higher frequency. I'll have to add these suited connectors to my 3bet range against the button.
I also am probably not 3betting the low KXs and QX suited at a high enough frequency. And I'm definitely not raising low JXs enough.
Flop
Importantly, the solver had some AQo in it's range here. I'm probably always 3betting that pre-flop. So my value range is a bit thinner than what's presented here.
I'm a little surprised that we aren't seeing a higher frequency of raising from our A9 2-pair hands. The solver is even more polarized and only betting top 2-pair, the sets, and most of the flush draws at a low frequency. Even KhJh is only getting raised about 25% of the time.
It's also pretty tough to find the bluff raise at any frequency with something like KsJs.
So, the easy leak to have here is to over-bluff the flush draws, especially if (like me) you're missing top 2-pair because you're 3 betting too much.
One note about my opponent's play. The solver doesn't really b33 here, it does this 1% of the time. It's actually checking back about 60% of the time and playing with b75 or b125 for a more polar strategy.
Turn
We'll have to be careful thinking about this range because our opponent had deviated a lot from the solver with his bet sizing. I'm sure that they are using b33 way more often than 1% of the time. Or they are a robot who can remember that level of detail.
Yep. The solver isn't finding many raises in this spot at all. It does have some small mix with the flush draws, slow-plays, and QX.
It looks like raising here just folds out a lot of hands that we have beat with our value, and we are practically drawing very thin or dead to the calling range.
River
The solver just checks it back with my hand. It looks like it really wants to have a 9 to bluff here since that blocks a lot of the full houses.
Summary:
I need to manage my bluffing frequency on that paired board turn. It looks like the solver doesn't bluff much at all. I did consider that holding hearts was pretty bad for the last bluff but in real time I didn't consider that having the 9 was the best blocker.
Let me know if you think there are any important details that would change because of the initial opening size or the limper!
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