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Hand against SuperNova

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Posted by posted in Low Stakes

Hand against SuperNova

BN: $133.40
SB: $227.98
BB: $61.42
UTG: $100.16
HJ: $208.90
CO: $249.22 (Hero)
Preflop ($1.50) (6 Players)
Hero was dealt J K
UTG folds, HJ raises to $3, Hero calls $3, BN calls $3, SB folds, BB folds
Flop ($10.50) J 4 9 (3 Players)
HJ bets $7, Hero calls $7, BN folds
Turn ($24.50) J 4 9 6 (2 Players)
HJ checks, Hero bets $15, HJ calls $15
River ($54.50) J 4 9 6 8 (2 Players)
HJ checks, Hero bets $44

He is 21/18/af3.0/3bet9.0 3k hands 

Cbet F 74 T 57

He is pretty smart so I wanna ask for opinions on how to play someone like this.



18 Comments

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Insilicio 11 years, 5 months ago

I think after villain c/c turn after you call a cbet 3way (which makes ur perceived range stronger), he likely has a hand like JTs, QJs, KJs. I think with your river sizing he is very likely to fold those hands, since it is so hard for you to be bluffing. Do you agree that a smaller betsizing on the river is better since ur range is so valueheavy? 

Sean Fri 11 years, 5 months ago

His small spread and low 3bet makes me think that he doesn't do anything without value, so he's got something on the turn, as well, that could show down. My guess would be 2 pr, sets, very specifically AJ or maybe A9 with the Ad for the nuts blocker, and then he obviously could be trapping with the nuts. I seriously doubt that someone this tight would x/c the turn with anything less than TPTK. Luckily, you block top set and almost any 2pr hands a guy like this would open in the first place. (J9 is the only thing that makes sense.) So combo wise, there's just not much he could have: 1 combo JJ, 6 combo J9, 2 combo AdJ, 3 combo Ad9, 3 combo 99, 3 combo 66, then eight Axdd combos left that he could maybe have in a HJ open. Maybe a few other J, but only just a few, since they're mostly blocked and as insilicio says, they'd almost have to be suited. So oddly, if this is accurate for this player, a fair part of his range (8 out of 26 or about 30%) is the nuts. 

I get the sense that he shoved on you here, which is why you're asking. I don't think a player like this bluff-shoves anything but the nut blocker, and he's got maybe 5 combos of that vs. 8 combos of the nuts. And since I doubt he's ALWAYS shoving the nut blocker, you'd have to discount some of those. So yeah, a shove is more than likely the nuts. 

In all, I think a smaller river bet is in order - like, really small. A big bet here accomplishes pretty much nothing. If you're going to go after value, I think make the turn bet a little bigger, when he still might call w/ 2 pr and trips and maybe the Ad, hoping to nut up with a boat or a flush. On the river, there's not much you can get, except shoved on by the nuts. 


BigFiszh 11 years, 5 months ago

I would bet bigger on the turn. His continuing-range most likely consists of hands that have at least a pair + flush draw, so he´ll definitely pay bigger.

As played riversizing is fine, you´d want to bet big with the rare bluffs you have as well, if he shoved on you that´s ugly, but I´d definitely call. Reason being that I had expected him to x/r with the nuts instead of x/c - especially when you bet that small.

Insilicio 11 years, 5 months ago

So say that you want to bet big with the rare bluffs you have, why is that? I disagree totally with that. The more valueheavy your range is, the smaller you wanna bet, since you want to make him indifferent with the medium part of his range. 

BigFiszh 11 years, 5 months ago

"The more valueheavy your range is, the smaller you wanna bet, since you
want to make him indifferent with the medium part of his range. "

You´re correct in general, but our valuerange is not that big anyways, so our range is by far not "valueheavy". Additionally it´s kind of an exploitive play, I guess his bluffcatchers will call pretty much regardless of the sizing and I want to prevent him from x/shoving light (with nutblocker).

Sean Fri 11 years, 5 months ago

I think a guy with stats like that (the 3% 3bet is the most glaring) will probably never x/shove light. i would lean to 100% that x/shove is nuts. I also DISagree that bluff catchers call any bet size. (See below - he folded. Only bluff catchers call that turn, but he still folded river.) I agree with everything else you say, though, but I think a smaller bet (if the assumption holds that he'll never x/r light) gives you a cheaper way to fold to the nuts and gets a few calls from bluff catchers that would fold to bigger bets. 

Marrek 11 years, 5 months ago

when villain checks the turn, any hand he he's going to x/c 2 streets with is a bluff catcher, so a line we can take is underbet the turn, overbet the river on blanks.  

This sells a bluff in a spot where he can only be bluff catching.

We have to adjust for future hands when called and show down, but also sets up future small bluffs.


CombatCarl 11 years, 5 months ago

He tanked for around 30 seconds and then folded on river...... Bet $30 may be, I think he had an over pair or AJ.

Sean Fri 11 years, 5 months ago

This is why I think bet turn bigger and river a little smaller. He'd have called both streets with those hands. What you got was a small call on turn and a fold on river, so I think you missed some value. 

modernbuddha 11 years, 5 months ago

@bigfiszh. "Reason being that I had expected him to x/r with the nuts instead of x/c - especially when you bet that small." 

Why do you expect him to x/r with the nuts? Can you elaborate on your thought process here? I don't understand. Furthermore, you advocated a larger river bet to prevent Villain from x/shoving light. If we make the assumption that he isn't capable of turning his hand into a bluff versus thin value bets, can we make a smaller bet size on the river? 

Sean Fri 11 years, 5 months ago

I'm also confused, though I think he probably means that IF he checks the nuts, then obviously he'll always x/r the nuts, never x/c. The other option is to lead. A x/c with the nuts makes no sense and should never happen unless you pushed all-in and he couldn't raise. 

SPrince 11 years, 5 months ago

I would bet bigger on the turn, and something like half pot or smaller on the river.Firstly because his range for calling a river bet is very narrow, and secondly for the simple reason that people in general are continuing with much wider ranges on turns.Mistake that people make is bet small with close to invulnerable hands on flops and turns, but bomb rivers.That`s just straight up missing out on value.If you stove his range for continuing on the turn, you`ll see my point.Your bet on the river just screams strength.Eight rolling off kills your action/narrows his calling range ever further.

When thinking about river sizing, you should first think about his range for getting to the river, what parts of that range are calling x amounts, what your range looks like, and only then evaluate the sizing.What i kinda deciphered from the thread title is that you level yourself here because he`s supernova/thinking player and you think he`ll see trough a small sizing as a clear value bet, or maybe you`re afraid of him turning hands into bluffs and shoving.

Instead you should just simply think about ranges.Try and scale/wage/measure (i dunno the right term) the relationship between the range he gets to the river/calls bets with and the $ amount that each particular hand from that range will call, from weakest to strongest.In this case weakest being JxBx with a diamond and overpairs, and strongest sets+QT.


chuBuBBawuB 11 years, 5 months ago

Your range is extremely value heavy on this river runout. Unless you are somehow turning Jx/9x into a bluff you pretty much only have KQ to bluff with. Given this and the fact that he most likely has a 1 pair type bluffcatcher I think you should bet smaller OTR, 33%-50% pot.

Oh and a big +1 to Hustla saying bet bigger on the turn. His turn check/call range is likely to be totally inelastic no matter your sizing (within reason).

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