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Guessing Villain's Range/My River Play?

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Posted by posted in Mid Stakes

Guessing Villain's Range/My River Play?

SB: $252.62 (126.3 bb)
Hero (BB): $441.06 (220.5 bb)
UTG: $153.66 (76.8 bb)
MP: $105.34 (52.7 bb)
CO: $488.17 (244.1 bb)
BTN: $138.37 (69.2 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Qs 2s
4 folds, SB raises to $6, Hero raises to $18, SB calls $12

SB seems like a competent reg although I haven't played much with him nor at this limit on this site. He's 29/23 so far with a SBsteal of 43%.

Flop: ($36) Kh 2h 7c (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $22, SB calls $22

My range crushes his on this board so I cbet.

Turn: ($80) As (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $60, SB calls $60

I think some players can show up with AQ/AJs here but I block AQ/KQ and still have some equity, although small, against KJ type hands if he calls turn with them. I also think most players will fold their 99/88/87s type hands here.

River: ($200) Ac (2 players)
SB checks

So I would guess villain's range is something like KTs, KJs, KQ, AQ, AJ, QJhh, QThh, JThh, and maybe 77. So I would guess that the decision to have a profitable jam on the river comes down to if he folds his Kx. From his perspective, the flop and turn ran out where I'm likely firing almost all my bluffs but may slow down on this river card often. I need 43% fold equity to make a jam profitable and I'm not sure what the next step is in deciding whether to jam or not other than randomly guessing if he folds most of his Kx or not.

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