Guessing Villain's Range/My River Play?
Posted by UpUpAndAway
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UpUpAndAway
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Mid Stakes
Guessing Villain's Range/My River Play?
SB: $252.62 (126.3 bb)
Hero (BB): $441.06 (220.5 bb)
UTG: $153.66 (76.8 bb)
MP: $105.34 (52.7 bb)
CO: $488.17 (244.1 bb)
BTN: $138.37 (69.2 bb)
Preflop: Hero is BB with Qs 2s
4 folds, SB raises to $6, Hero raises to $18, SB calls $12
SB seems like a competent reg although I haven't played much with him nor at this limit on this site. He's 29/23 so far with a SBsteal of 43%.
Flop: ($36) Kh 2h 7c (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $22, SB calls $22
My range crushes his on this board so I cbet.
Turn: ($80) As (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $60, SB calls $60
I think some players can show up with AQ/AJs here but I block AQ/KQ and still have some equity, although small, against KJ type hands if he calls turn with them. I also think most players will fold their 99/88/87s type hands here.
River: ($200) Ac (2 players)
SB checks
So I would guess villain's range is something like KTs, KJs, KQ, AQ, AJ, QJhh, QThh, JThh, and maybe 77. So I would guess that the decision to have a profitable jam on the river comes down to if he folds his Kx. From his perspective, the flop and turn ran out where I'm likely firing almost all my bluffs but may slow down on this river card often. I need 43% fold equity to make a jam profitable and I'm not sure what the next step is in deciding whether to jam or not other than randomly guessing if he folds most of his Kx or not.
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I think best option is to give up here. But that really depends on villain I´d say. Given the situation and ranges it doesnt seem we will have 43% FE here.
Also you can add on villains range all Axhh he will call a 3b with and probably dont fold the river, so FE is even less.
I think your analysis is good, perhaps you forgot some AXhh and 7Xhh combos, but yeah it all comes down to how many combos of his value region, mostly Kx combos, he's folding to a river shove, and yes, it's a guessing game. My guess is you won't get 43% of folds but I haven't made a proper analysis.
Does this mean we never want to bluff in this scenario? Are spots like this when there are river cards in which our opponent expects us to give up our bluffs good spots to actually bluff? I see myself getting leveled often and trying to bluff at a proper ratio, and get called by hands that I expected and hoped that would find a fold. Hopefully we can share our views in this topic which I think it's very interesting and quite relevant.
Yea that's the thing. I do think I have one of the best blocker hands to fire off on the river. I block AQ/KQ and don't block any heart combos. I think Q7 no heart might be the only better hand in terms of blocking value.
However, your hand has showdown value vs 3 sure combos of his range QJhh, QThh, JThh (also maybe occasionally T9hh, Q9hh,J9hh, who knows) and since the river is such a bad card to triple barrel on as bluff, I think checking back river is best. Villain shoulde never fold Kx on the river imo.
I agree 100% with what you're saying but at the same time think it's pretty contradictory. I have one of the best blocker hands I can have and still it seems as though I might be getting called too frequently in this spot so I shouldn't be bluffing here.
But if I'm not bluffing my almost-best bluffing combo, villain has almost no incentive to call virtually any of his range here since my value range is going to primarily be AK, AA, and KK- all of which he never has.
So exploitatively, the consensus seems to be that I should check back my non-nut combos on a board we have a severe range advantage because most opponents likely overcall the river with Kx. But theoretically, if I don't have any river bluffs then unless villain starts to raise/call some AA,KK, and AK in order to not be exploited on this type of board runout then he should be check/folding the river 100% of the time.
That last paragraph makes me very confused from a theoretical standpoint as I don't know which viewpoint is wrong, if any. Perhaps it's where my interpretation of exploitative play and theory clash?
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