GTO analysis: HU Deep, 3bet pot, T9 on KK67s2
Posted by ilares
Posted by ilares posted in Mid Stakes
GTO analysis: HU Deep, 3bet pot, T9 on KK67s2
BB: $1277.75
so here we are playing HU after the 6max has broken, we are on anonymous tables
vilain is a reg, he is a little too much passive, don't value bet thin, fold a lot to flop cbet (60%), it is like 150hands we are playing HU, i took something like a buy in
T9s seems a great hand to 3bet and cbet a lot of boards, he isn't too much of a calling station (only saw him hero call me twice, and i bluffed often)
and i think we have a great decision on the river
i decided to shove, i think it is GTO and the best move on the river, and we will see how range vs range play here
so first, vilain has 989$ behind so we have a SPR around 1.7
i think we split our betting range in 2 sizings, one half pot with 88-QQ, AA, A7s (39combos), we need 25% bluff on our half pot sizing range, so 13 combos of bluffs it is (13/(39+13)=0.25)
so we can bluff 89s (4) 54s (4) T8s (4) and Tc9c (1)
our second sizing will be all in, so we overbet 1.7x pot, giving villain a 39% needed equity to call; we will value AK (8), KQ (8), KJ (8) , KK (1), 77 (3), 66 (3) so 31 combos of value; so we need 20 combos of bluff ( 20/51=0.39)
we can bluff all in hands that blocks nuts, like 6s4s, 6s5s, 6s8s, As6s (4) we bluff our worst hands, like T9s (3, we used Tc9c for half pot), As2s, As3s, As4s, As5s, As8s, As9s, AsTs, AsJs, AsQs, QsJs, QsTs, Qs9s, JsTs (13)
we don't have a lot of checking hands who want to go to showdown, maybe AsQs, AsJs, 67s and some 88-99
we don't have 22-55 in our ranges, nor K6s K7s
so that for our part
vs the shove, villain must defend hands that blocks our nuts like 6x, 7x and Kx; he also need 39% equity against our range
so his bluffcatchers like 88-QQ have 39% equity so are indifferent between call and fold, and his Kx are clear call with a little more than 50% equity
so our strategy seems nice, vilain don't have so much kings compared to 88+,Ax, 6x
what do you think?
do you prefer shoving with less bluffs to make a KT indifferent from calling?
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