Gross spot with top set in 3bet pot, 300bb deep.
Posted by Hoothoot
Posted by
Hoothoot
posted in
Low Stakes
Gross spot with top set in 3bet pot, 300bb deep.
SB: $26.20
BB: $180.42
UTG: $58.37
HJ: $14.24
CO: $74.53 (Hero)
UTG folds, HJ folds, Hero raises to $0.75, BN calls $0.75, SB folds, BB raises to $3.25, Hero calls $2.50, BN folds
Villain is playing 28/19 over 28 hands with a 3bet of 11.8. I had a Pokerstars online pro sitting to my left in the BTN who had flatted my open, so I decided to flat here in case he tried to re-steal. In hindsight, it was foolish to assume that was a possibility, since he knows his perceived range is capped and the 3bettor's range isn't. I flop gin, but decided it would be tough to get action if I raised, since I block AK. If I raise flop, AK and JJ are the only hands that will continue, which is only 7 combos, and I'll fold out all his bluffs. I naturally have to bet turn, even though I expected villain to bet all his value hands (KQ, TT, JJ, sometimes AK). I should have bet more like $11. Anyway, when he jams, I have a bit of a tough decision considering how deep we are.
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We're not really considering folding, are we?
It's a pretty ugly spot, considering we have the Ah which would block plenty of the Axhh flush draws he could have had.
With that said though, there's really only a few combinations of hands that have us crushed, like KQ. I'd hate to call and see KQhh/KQss, but there's just few combinations of them compared to the hands he might have that we dominate ourselves.
Do you think he's a thinking player though? Because if so, our hand is extremely underrepresented, and he may be X/J'ing thinking he has fold equity against some of the hands we might play like this. I doubt you'd ever call with AQ here, even AQhh would be hard to call this deep, so there's the chance that he thinks you'd have that in your range, and thus look to put you to a decision so you're likely to fold it this deep. I'm guessing you'd 3bet AK vs. a UTG open, yeah? Because if so, he'd expect that to be eliminated from our range also.
You have to also consider the idea that, if he expects you to have hands like AQ here that might fold, he's rarely going to be jamming for value, and instead would look to raise the turn to an amount that won't have you so scared of your hand.
Against the range I gave him that includes straights, two pair, worse sets, and some semi-bluff hands (QJhh, T9ss), we've still got 66% equity. Maybe my range is too loose, but removing the semi-bluff hands (QJhh, T9ss) still has us sitting on 66% equity, so I think you'd be crazy to ever consider folding here.
If he turns up with KQ, NH sir, well played, and continue on grinding.
You seem to be forgetting the stack sizes. Sure if this was a standard 100bb pot, it would be a snap call. But it's not, it's 300bbs. When people are this deep, unless they are absolutely insane they're going to be very careful about the hands they choose to shove with. Ah is blocked for a nut flush draw and even with a set of Jacks it would be tough to find a shove. I know that players with stats of 28/19 (admittedly it is a tiny sample size) have a tendency to shove when they hit a v.strong hand, but at 300bbs the only strong hand I can see them doing this with is KQ.
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt
968 games 0.045 secs 21,511 games/sec
Board: As Th 5h Js
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 36.467% 36.47% 00.00% 353 0.00 { AdAh }
Hand 1: 63.533% 63.53% 00.00% 615 0.00 { KQs, KhJh, KsTs, QhJh, QsTs, 9h8h, 9s8s, KQo }
thats also with the very questionable assumption that hes spazzing all those draws. We are waaaaaay short of 66% equity
Even if we remove the semi-bluff hands, and give him a range of KQ and JJ/TT, we're still 43% to win the hand equity wise. Toothpaste, you said in your other comment we needed 40% to call, right? But there's still more that someone could be spaz-shoving for value than just KQ. If he never expects us to have AA here, and if he think we can have AQhh/AKhh (entirely possible since we have one of those cards), he might be trying to get us to call with his lower sets. If we add some hands which he might 3bet preflop, that we block, like AJ/AT, our equity goes up to 55%.
It's a gross spot, yeah, but at a limit where people can do some crazy things and overvalue lesser hands, I don't see how this could be a fold.
Do you need the money for the following week, OP? If say, you have rent or bills, or food that needs to be purchased, then I can see how folding here and taking the lesser variance option might be alright. If the loss wouldn't matter too much for you, and you're more concerned about long-term results, I think calling is best here given that villains shoving range isn't just going to be KQ, and against a range that includes lower sets and some TP hands, we're going to be showing profit in the long run. As I said previously, our hand is disguised so he's never going to expect us to have a hand like top set here, so there's definitely worse he can jam with for value.
If we could make decisions against individual hands then poker would be a pretty easy game, but unfortunately we play against ranges. Sometimes we run into the top of someone else's range in a spot where we can often expect to crush their range, and that's just something we have to put up with.
I'm still calling.
yeah, im definitely 4 betting pre, and I would bet the turn bigger.
blah, I dunno, I mean I dont get why he would overbet like this with KQ, especially after your weak bet, because it doesnt look like you are particularly strong, but on the other hand, who shoves 300bb deep like this without the nuts?
we need 40% equity to call here. Its really hard to come up with enough other hands besides KQ that push us to that equity. I mean even if he reads us as weak and is semi bluffing KJhh QJhh 98hh KTss QTss 98ss we are short, and its just hard to imagine he would play AJ or a worse set like this, or even plays all those semi bluffs like this.
as gross as it feels, I would fold.
dunno ,you are on the top on your range ,and in his eyes you never have AA here ,maybe even TT JJ(stack size ,maybe 4betvalue) than i dont understand why he push KQ,but why he push something else if you can have easy KQ.
ugly ugly spot but i think he can have TT JJ here too,not only KQ
I actually agree that he could have TT or JJ here and be really scared to see a river out of position in a huge pot this deep, since there are so many scary cards for him. I mean I think it's pretty bad since we can definitely have KQ but then I wouldn't really expect him to do this with KQ either. Will have a think about this one...
If hes so scared to see a river why does he check the turn?
If he goes for the C/R on the turn he can shut the play down as he has. If it goes check/check and the river is a bad card the pot is almost a third of the size it would have been had he bet. when that scare card comes and his opponents range is wider and weaker so it is much more comfortable to c/c a scary river.
People do this frequently in PLO where they have top set on the turn but most rivers are terrible, if it checks through and the river comes bad for you - you are playing a smaller pot with a disguised hand out of position rather than creating a monster pot and being forced to turn your hand face up on bad rivers. If the opponent bets you can c/r and either get it in good or shut out there equity.
I am by no means saying this is a great play, just showing that I think it's reasonable that a lot of players would have this type of logic.
I think it's an absolute certainty regardless of what he has that he doesn't want to play a monster pot oop on the river. Whether this is because he has a big draw and doesn't want to have to make a decision oop when he misses, Or because he has a straight but is scared of the board pairing or a flush card Or even a set with the same reasoning - that part I don't know, but the only reason he would be shoving this big is because he is scared to play a big pot oop on the river with such a dynamic board texture.
too low of limits for this to be a bluff that often. how often its aj at jj or lower set is really what this depends on.
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