Good shove?

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Good shove?

1/2 live. I have AcKs utg 80 effective and raise to 8. Folds to loose btn that calls and bb 300 effective loose aggro calls. Flop comes 10c8d5c. BB leads 10. I call because i know from history he'll lead when someone opens and no ace nor face card comes out. Btn fold. Turn is a 2c. He leads 9, and i shipped wanting him to fold a pair, mostly a 8 or 5. Is my shove good here being that i have equity for the nut flush if he calls ahead? He shows 8h6d and the river bricks out

3 Comments

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screamdustry 8 years ago

If he called you with a hand that he was supposed to fold, its usually a signal that you targeted wrong player profile with your bluff. That being said, its really tough to commit huge mistakes against in live play having that much equity OTT.

JCJordypants 8 years ago

Given that he's lead smaller on the turn than he did on the flop it seems very obvious that villain has a weak showdown hand. I think a shove is fine here, if you want to raise you can't really go any other sizing and we have quite a few outs against the range villain should have.

One thing to think about is whether villain actually finds folds in these spots. It's all well and good knowing what kind of range they have but if they're never folding it then it's a bad shove. Especially as we've been given such a good price to peel.

So basically if villain bet/folds a lot when betting this sizing then the shove is fine, if villain often calls then it's more likely a bad shove.

Disharmonist 8 years ago

Yeah good shove. Value of a bluff is always EQ combined with perceived fold EQ. He should fold weak pairs (obv. he plays far from optimal and probably just random feel based). You got worst case 7 outs, but against his range you have 9 flushouts + 6 pair outs quiet often so the shove is good.

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