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good river fold?

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Posted by posted in Low Stakes

good river fold?

B p1 $9

sb p2 $20

bb p3 8.7

utg p4 10

utg2 p5 11.3

CO 21.63 (Hero)

.05/.10 bovada


folds to hero in CO with AdQd hero bets .40 B folds sb p2 calls bb folds

Board QhTh8c pot .90      p2 checks hero bets .70 p2 calls

Board QhTh8c 3c  pot 2.30       p2 checks hero bets 1.75 p2 calls

Board QhTh8c 3c 4c pot 5.80      p2 checks hero bets 3.75 p2 bets 10 hero folds....

a flush is unlikely but seems that this is almost never a bluff esp at mirco to tight or the right move no history with the player or stats.

15 Comments

Loading 15 Comments...

NoHubris 11 years, 1 month ago

I agree that you're probably not going to beat much when getting shoved on the river, so the fold is good IMO. I don't really have much else to say.

When going for value, I like to go with 2 streets of value, either going for bet/check/bet, or bet/bet/check, unless I know my opponent is a complete calling station/donk. I find it works better, because a logical, thinking opponent is not going to call 3 streets with worse than top pair, but he may very well reraise you on the third street. Just something to think about!

Piper420 11 years, 1 month ago

yeah I would say the fold is good. players at 10nl do not bluff raise the river enough for this to be a profitable call.

i am also down at 10nl on bovada. what times do you play? we might be playing against each other. :) oh, and please dont call when I bluffsh


PT 11 years, 1 month ago

haha all day duluh mn time from noon till 4ish then 7pm till midnightish is my times at a min. i play 25nl now tho was reviewing some hands from about a month ago 

Piper420 11 years, 1 month ago

Ah ok cool. Im in eastern time zone and usually play after midnight during the week and after 7 on weekends. I hope to come back up the stakes soon. I was playing as high as 100nl but have had a pretty bad downswing due to variance and tilt so now I have to build my roll up again.

PT 11 years, 1 month ago
you do it! bovada is good at tilting someone haha. no other site ive ever played on or play on now mega tilts me the way bovada does haha


Kevin 11 years, 1 month ago

I think its a close decision, considering no reads or history.  I don't think just saying players never bluff raise on river is a good reason to say it was a good fold, even if its true.  I think the better approach is what is villain's range in this situation.

I think his range consists of missed draws and backdoor made hands.  I think its unlikely he has an overpair or flopped a set of QQ's because we have blockers to both and he likely 3bets pre.  Set of T's or 8's would likely raise flop or turn with draw heavy board and probably won't raise when flush draw hits river.  J9 is possible but again, I see him raising the turn with the 2nd club hitting.

Backdoor made hands are probably any straight draw or pair plus draw with clubs that turned the flush draw and hit on the river.  IMO this is probably the case with his smallish river raise which seems to be a value raise instead of a bluff.  If you're read was he doesn't get out of line then I think it was a good fold, if he made some other spewy plays or river raises I think it makes it a lot closer and probably a call.  Hope I helped!

PT 11 years, 1 month ago
love your thinking appreciate the comment!! and when i said this is almost never a bluff esp at micro i was thinking/saying a short version of what u are saying. that esp at these stakes his range of hands here are never a bluff. im assuming hes not thinking at a level to float with air to bluff riv or do wierd things like turn kq or qj into a bluff. his range is 95% of the time what u said  


Bink182 11 years, 1 month ago

I'm a new poster to these forums so please forgive me if my logic is flawed. This is a very close spot I think. However IMO I would have to lean towards calling here against an unknown V. Hearts missed  straight draws missed, the only thing that we really lose to is Q10 and QQ, he probably 3bets QQ pre and we block both of those hands. He can also have slowplayed J9 or 88 which both may not raise river for value, fearing BD flush. I think we are beat here a lot, but he has missed draws here too much to fold. Maybe I'm giving 10nl players too much credit to turn hands into bluffs and I'm a huge station lol feel free to let me know. Also I think rare V can have KQ here and be value cutting himself.

PT 11 years, 1 month ago
my comment on PaN1C is also my comment to u :). welcome to the site i just started also! stop being a POW ;)


Piper420 11 years, 1 month ago

"Maybe I'm giving 10nl players too much credit to turn hands into bluffs" Yes, you are. I am currently playing 10nl and I would say that it is very rare to see any villain bluffing rivers. Therefore against an unknown, this is an easy fold to me. After I have a read that villain is aggressive and capable of bluff raising, it would be a crying call. Giving 10-25nl players too much credit is actually one of my biggest leaks, and I have been working on sewing that up recently.

I like your analyses though Bink and Panic. It is just that it is overthinking at this limit.

Ondrej Rysavy 11 years, 1 month ago

nl 10,nl20 i saw 3barrel bluff ,but almost never bluff raise on river.I sometimes see so bad  "valueraise" on river ,but never clear bluff.

Piper420 11 years, 1 month ago
You're right about the "valueraise" bit and I'm never calling without at least reads that villain is somewhat aggressive. You have some that won't raise sets on dry boards and others who raise K9 on rivers like 9cTcKs As Jc. <lol this happened last night and I considered folding straight. Again, reads are very important.


Bink182 11 years, 1 month ago

You are probably right Piper. I play 50nl and 100nl also on Bovada, so I'm used to a little more of a thinking player.  The only reason I would consider making the crying call here is because it's very hard for me to find much of a value range for V besides a BD flush IMO. He can have some slow played hands but not too many IMO  considering lots of Vs would 3bet TT+ from the blinds, and would just fold J9o and Q10o from SB. Some might have Q10o in there calling range there but I don't think they should and the majority probably won't. Plus, as I've said our Q is blocking a ton of his value combos. I think his most likely value hands are 88 or a hand like KcJc. Maybe giving him credit for one of those and folding is the best play, I would like to hear what other people have to say about it.

Bink182 11 years, 1 month ago

I would also like to point out that even if players turning hands into bluffs at these stakes may not be common. How smart do you have to be to get to this river with 9 high and realize raising is the only way for you to win. If it is a bluff, it's a bad bluff, because he dosnt rep much IMO, and that's something I would expect out of a 10nl player.

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