good river fold?
Posted by PT
Posted by
PT
posted in
Low Stakes
good river fold?
B p1 $9
sb p2 $20
bb p3 8.7
utg p4 10
utg2 p5 11.3
CO 21.63 (Hero)
.05/.10 bovada
folds to hero in CO with AdQd hero bets .40 B folds sb p2 calls bb folds
Board QhTh8c pot .90 p2 checks hero bets .70 p2 calls
Board QhTh8c 3c pot 2.30 p2 checks hero bets 1.75 p2 calls
Board QhTh8c 3c 4c pot 5.80 p2 checks hero bets 3.75 p2 bets 10 hero folds....
a flush is unlikely but seems that this is almost never a bluff esp at mirco to tight or the right move no history with the player or stats.
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I agree that you're probably not going to beat much when getting shoved on the river, so the fold is good IMO. I don't really have much else to say.
When going for value, I like to go with 2 streets of value, either going for bet/check/bet, or bet/bet/check, unless I know my opponent is a complete calling station/donk. I find it works better, because a logical, thinking opponent is not going to call 3 streets with worse than top pair, but he may very well reraise you on the third street. Just something to think about!
yeah I would say the fold is good. players at 10nl do not bluff raise the river enough for this to be a profitable call.
i am also down at 10nl on bovada. what times do you play? we might be playing against each other. :) oh, and please dont call when I bluffsh^bluffshove river. :D
haha all day duluh mn time from noon till 4ish then 7pm till midnightish is my times at a min. i play 25nl now tho was reviewing some hands from about a month ago
Ah ok cool. Im in eastern time zone and usually play after midnight during the week and after 7 on weekends. I hope to come back up the stakes soon. I was playing as high as 100nl but have had a pretty bad downswing due to variance and tilt so now I have to build my roll up again.
I think its a close decision, considering no reads or history. I don't think just saying players never bluff raise on river is a good reason to say it was a good fold, even if its true. I think the better approach is what is villain's range in this situation.
I think his range consists of missed draws and backdoor made hands. I think its unlikely he has an overpair or flopped a set of QQ's because we have blockers to both and he likely 3bets pre. Set of T's or 8's would likely raise flop or turn with draw heavy board and probably won't raise when flush draw hits river. J9 is possible but again, I see him raising the turn with the 2nd club hitting.
Backdoor made hands are probably any straight draw or pair plus draw with clubs that turned the flush draw and hit on the river. IMO this is probably the case with his smallish river raise which seems to be a value raise instead of a bluff. If you're read was he doesn't get out of line then I think it was a good fold, if he made some other spewy plays or river raises I think it makes it a lot closer and probably a call. Hope I helped!
I'm a new poster to these forums so please forgive me if my logic is flawed. This is a very close spot I think. However IMO I would have to lean towards calling here against an unknown V. Hearts missed straight draws missed, the only thing that we really lose to is Q10 and QQ, he probably 3bets QQ pre and we block both of those hands. He can also have slowplayed J9 or 88 which both may not raise river for value, fearing BD flush. I think we are beat here a lot, but he has missed draws here too much to fold. Maybe I'm giving 10nl players too much credit to turn hands into bluffs and I'm a huge station lol feel free to let me know. Also I think rare V can have KQ here and be value cutting himself.
"Maybe I'm giving 10nl players too much credit to turn hands into bluffs" Yes, you are. I am currently playing 10nl and I would say that it is very rare to see any villain bluffing rivers. Therefore against an unknown, this is an easy fold to me. After I have a read that villain is aggressive and capable of bluff raising, it would be a crying call. Giving 10-25nl players too much credit is actually one of my biggest leaks, and I have been working on sewing that up recently.
I like your analyses though Bink and Panic. It is just that it is overthinking at this limit.
nl 10,nl20 i saw 3barrel bluff ,but almost never bluff raise on river.I sometimes see so bad "valueraise" on river ,but never clear bluff.
You are probably right Piper. I play 50nl and 100nl also on Bovada, so I'm used to a little more of a thinking player. The only reason I would consider making the crying call here is because it's very hard for me to find much of a value range for V besides a BD flush IMO. He can have some slow played hands but not too many IMO considering lots of Vs would 3bet TT+ from the blinds, and would just fold J9o and Q10o from SB. Some might have Q10o in there calling range there but I don't think they should and the majority probably won't. Plus, as I've said our Q is blocking a ton of his value combos. I think his most likely value hands are 88 or a hand like KcJc. Maybe giving him credit for one of those and folding is the best play, I would like to hear what other people have to say about it.
I would also like to point out that even if players turning hands into bluffs at these stakes may not be common. How smart do you have to be to get to this river with 9 high and realize raising is the only way for you to win. If it is a bluff, it's a bad bluff, because he dosnt rep much IMO, and that's something I would expect out of a 10nl player.
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