good equity in 3bet pot -IP vs raise

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good equity in 3bet pot -IP vs raise

BN: $25 (Hero)
SB: $12.60
BB: $14.81
UTG: $13.66
HJ: $25.62
CO: $25.25
Preflop ($0.35) (6 Players)
Hero was dealt 6 8
UTG folds, HJ raises to $0.75, CO folds, Hero raises to $2.45, SB folds, BB folds, HJ calls $1.70
Flop ($5.25) 4 K 5 (2 Players)
HJ checks, Hero bets $3.40, HJ raises to $8.10, Hero raises to $22.55, and is all in, HJ calls $14.45
Turn ($53.75) T 4 K 5 (2 Players)
River ($53.75) 2 T 4 K 5 (2 Players)
Final Pot
HJ has 4 5 Hero has 6 8 HJ wins $48.35
here is zoom hand, villian is 32\17 57hand no reads or any additional info

is it ok to fold here? as we dont ahead of many hands. he wont be raise-folding here often enough, and prob not rasing hands like TPgood kicker.

12 Comments

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WM2K 12 years, 2 months ago
No its not ok to fold here. You hit gin with a pretty big draw. Even when he has hit the board like he did your not that far behind.
efas 12 years, 2 months ago
You will face bigger heart draw here more then 45s and we are very behind vs bigger fd.
And even if we knew that he has that particular hand like 45cc vs that hand its just a Breakeven call.

It would be different story if we knew he can 3bet bluff and fold to shove, but be honest with your selves, ppl dont do that :)
efas 12 years, 2 months ago
Yes fold - hes not going anywhere when he raises that flop and we need about 42% equity to make it breakeve.
When he raises us on this board i would put him mostly on fd which will probably have two overcards vs us, and we would have about 27% equity
Vs general range: 55,AhQh,AhJh,AhTh,AhKd,AsKd,AcKd we have smth like 35%
WM2K 12 years, 2 months ago
Ok no this is crazy. If your folding this don t 3 bet this kind of hand. Villain can have KQ or even AK sometimes.
(55,44)@100,(AhQh-Ah9h)@100,(AxKx,AxKy,KxQx,KxQy)@25,(5x4x)@100 vs this we have 38%. And I have definitely seen guys c/r and fold in bizarre spots. It might be on the thin side but I would never fold this.
WM2K 12 years, 2 months ago
c/r shoves you mean? Ya i mean its about b/e with the range I gave. Its not a fistpump by any means but idk man I can t justify folding this hand when you hit the board like this.

Fwiw I don t really like the 3 bet vs a HJ raise esp from someone with relatively passive stats so far. There s just no need too as you can probably have a reasonably aggressive 3 betting range without crap like this.
efas 12 years, 2 months ago
I calculated EV with the chance that he folds of 10% and calls 90% fair?We still need 47% equity and it will be only breakeven play :) Math dont lie...unless im bad with it.You somehow see this hand as a monster. It would be if you were the caller /w this hand on this flop and raising his cbet.
WM2K 12 years, 2 months ago
Theres no way that we need 47% to put this in with no FE. If villain shoves OTF we need 38% to call. Seeing as we have that and a small hope that he folds if we shove then this is a pretty easy all in. Idk what your calc is but your def doing something incorrectly. To need 47% to go with it needs to be like a 3x pot raise or something crazy like that.
efas 12 years, 2 months ago
I was not talking/thinking about preflop, but yes - even looking at his stats - we can assume hes more call happy then regular player, and 3beting 68s here is not good.
James Hudson 12 years, 2 months ago
With 57 hands on someone I don't think you're going to be able to make a good enough read to find a fold. He doesn't need to be raise folding much at all to make this an easy get in.
Izanagi 12 years, 1 month ago
Against a 32/17 we probably have no fold equity and he will be less likely to have bluffs and more likely to have every Kx in his range. I'd just call flop.
brodyz 12 years, 1 month ago
we do have fe here izanagi and if we flat hes going to jam the turn very often and we get pushed off our equity by hands that may have folded if we shoved flop.

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