Good bluff?
Posted by Chael Sonnen
Posted by
Chael Sonnen
posted in
Mid Stakes
Good bluff?
BN: airborneQOR: $207
SB: Pe4enka: $111.86
BB: goldshan7: $332.16
UTG: Hero: $527.54
HJ: bodgik77: $209.92
CO: HlavacsKA: $487.36
SB: Pe4enka: $111.86
BB: goldshan7: $332.16
UTG: Hero: $527.54
HJ: bodgik77: $209.92
CO: HlavacsKA: $487.36
Preflop
($3.00)
(6 Players)
Hero was dealt
Q
K
Hero raises to $6, bodgik77 folds, HlavacsKA raises to $18, airborneQOR folds, Pe4enka folds, goldshan7 calls $16, Hero calls $12
Hero raises to $6, bodgik77 folds, HlavacsKA raises to $18, airborneQOR folds, Pe4enka folds, goldshan7 calls $16, Hero calls $12
CO is 30/24/11 over 273 hands
BB has only played 21 hands. We played a hand where he cold called a HJ 3-bet vs UTG on BTN, raises 20 to 100 on 477cc fairly deep,
BB has only played 21 hands. We played a hand where he cold called a HJ 3-bet vs UTG on BTN, raises 20 to 100 on 477cc fairly deep,
Flop
($55.00)
T
A
5
(3 Players)
goldshan7 checks,
Hero checks,
HlavacsKA checks
Co could pot control with AK/AQ here because he really doesn't want to get check-raised this deep.
He could also have JJ/QQ/KK, but we block two of those. So mostly Ax and give ups.
He could also have JJ/QQ/KK, but we block two of those. So mostly Ax and give ups.
Turn
($55.00)
T
A
5
6
(3 Players)
goldshan7 checks,
Hero bets $30,
HlavacsKA calls $30,
goldshan7 calls $30
So I bet my big draw, and they both call.
Now putting CO on Ax, maybe 87s, same for BB.
Don't think BB has many sets, since he'd probably c/r turn. Also, he cold called a 3-bet, so it would have to be TT.
Now putting CO on Ax, maybe 87s, same for BB.
Don't think BB has many sets, since he'd probably c/r turn. Also, he cold called a 3-bet, so it would have to be TT.
River
($145.00)
T
A
5
6
4
(3 Players)
goldshan7 checks,
Hero bets $168
So should I bluff here.
When I overbet into two players on a dry runout after having bet the turn, how am I ever bluffing here?
I can have all the sets but AA, as well as 87.
BB should never have anything but Ax here, and can he really hero call, given this line?
Spoiler: The ending is pretty crazy.
When I overbet into two players on a dry runout after having bet the turn, how am I ever bluffing here?
I can have all the sets but AA, as well as 87.
BB should never have anything but Ax here, and can he really hero call, given this line?
Spoiler: The ending is pretty crazy.
Loading 8 Comments...
bump
First thought that comes into my head - why would you do this for value? Their ranges look very weak, and your overbet looks very strong, almost as if you're trying to make them fold (which you are). It also isn't in line with your smaller turn sizing. And they can both (if BB is a fish which he might be, given your description) have 87. Still, for a reg (especially if he's a weaker one) the river overbet might look very scary, so it's possible he'd fold everything but a straight (or 2 pair if he has it somehow) but if BB is indeed a fish, he might be calling you with any A, many draws missed, after all. So, I think that it's rather hard to say if this is a +EV bluff, and it might be very +EV with better reads, but knowing only what you wrote, I'd just give up.
Would you do this for value?
In theory, I don't think my bet sizing is bad. Given the line they've taken, their ranges are extremely capped.
I am not at all, so I should be attacking here. It is a bit of an exploitable play. They probably don't think they're ever getting bluffed into two, when I bet turn and overbet river.
So against a really good opponent, I'd probably bomb it with my whole betting range. Exploitably, I'd probably bet 70% pot with value hands.
Your turn sizing would make me less likely to believe you. Would you use that sizing with sets?
Other than that I think it's fine but I would bet the river around 200.
Could have made it like 35-40, but I don't think 60% looks that suspicious.
When making an exploitable play like I do here, I think I just want to make Villian think ''overbet in big pot into two players'', and I'm not sure me betting 110% or 150% changes my fold equity, unless it's an all in.
The ending was so weird.
CO insta-folds, and BB calls two seconds later...and mucks.
He had Q8o.
Thought it was a misclick at first, but I'm pretty sure it wasn't.
He cold called a CO 3-bet vs UTG in the BB with Q8o, then c/c the turn 3-way with a no equity hand, and then called my overbet with Qhigh.
40-45 on turn, 110-120 on riv imo, overbetting really does nothing in this spot
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