Gameplan in big Squeezed pots (standardspot)
Posted by RaoulFlush
Posted by
RaoulFlush
posted in
Low Stakes
Gameplan in big Squeezed pots (standardspot)
Blinds: $0.05/$0.10 (6 Players)
BN: $10.29
SB: $12.59 (Hero)
BB: $14.92
UTG: $14.83
MP: $10.76
CO: $14.86
SB: $12.59 (Hero)
BB: $14.92
UTG: $14.83
MP: $10.76
CO: $14.86
Preflop
($0.15)
Hero is SB with
A
K
, , , , , , , ,
Flop
($4.36)
9
5
Q
, ,
Final Pot
BN wins $4.16
Rake is $0.20
Rake is $0.20
Villain is totally unknown here.
I felt kind of lost given this SPR how to proceed here.
So i would say we XF without BDFD and bet 1/3 with BDFD with the intention of jamming FD/Tx/Jx(maybe already too aggro?) and check/decide on A/K?
I guess this board hits most Villains kind of decently here QJ/KQ/AQ/T9s/89s/KJ
Any comments appreciated
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Yeah these are interesting spots.
I think you can discount KQ and AQ some because those hands squeeze frequently. So I think their range is a bit weaker than you’d expect. Your range is likely richer in KQ AQ 99 and overpairs. I think this implies that you can cbet range here.
So I think my plan would be cbet a small size and probably jam when turning any equity. We should have enough top pair, sets, and overpairs that this isn’t likely to be a significant mistake. Anyway that’s my instinct in this spot.
I might run a sim tomorrow to explore this further. If I do I’ll report back.
I played with sims for a few minutes -
Using variants of what I thought might be reasonable ranges -
Hero - AA-TT,AKs-ATs,A5s-A4s,KQs-KJs,AKo-AQo,KQo,[50.0]99-88,AJo,KJo[/50.0],[30.0]KTs,QJs-QTs,JTs[/30.0]
Villain - 99-66,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,76s,65s,54s,[50.0]JJ-TT,55,AQs-ATs,KQs-KTs,QJs-QTs,AQo,KQo[/50.0],[25.0]QQ,AJo,KJo[/25.0],[10.0]QJo[/10.0]
I tightened and loosened each of those by a couple percent and it doesn't seem to make a ton of difference to the outcome.
With 33% cbet sizing and turn jam - we're cbetting ~98% of our range
With "get the money in smoothly" turned on we get a 60% sizing on the flop and about 60% on turn to jam. Even with the 60% size we can cbet 90+%. In these sims AKs checks about 15% and AKss 17.5%
With 33% or 75% on flop we mix between sizes about 50/50 but still bet 90+%
Looks like I was wrong about turn strategy though. On turns that bring a flush draw, KQ seems to mix vbets on most turns, AQ is pure bet, and anything stronger is mixing or pure check. Bluffs seem to come from flush draws which pure shove turns and TT which mixes shoves.
Spade turns are interesting in that our bluff frequency goes way up with AK betting something like 75% of the time and gutshots are pure shoves.
So it seems the takeaway here is that we have a strong range and nut advantage and should bet the flop nearly always. On the turn we're wary of cards that interact significantly with villain's calling range - any bdoor flush card and any 8, T, J, or Q.
I think this winds up as a pretty close spot but 1/3PSB, 1/2PSB turn could be EV > 0.
I don't think villain is going to have too many offsuit Qs here and with the AQ, KQ blocker there aren't many Qs left. Villian's range is weighted toward pocket pairs 55-TT given preflop action. You can also discount TT because it 3bets sometimes.
Spades aren't great for your hand improving obviously but they do unblock all 3 BDFDs on a rainbow flop that would peel for a 1/3 cbet that would then have an easy fold on most turns. 2s-5s, 9s, would be great cards to double barrel as a bluff and 9d,9c, 5c, 5d to a lesser extent because they remove a few sets but create a few FDs. Another key assumption is 66-TT all peel flop for 1/3 PSB. The bet would apply pressure to all the non set medium pairs and getting folds from naked gutshots & overcards. Slightly under half pot bet on turn would threaten a river shove and should get the job done vs the BDFDs that did not improve except JTs. I only gave Villain AQo for offsuit queens. There's about 20 top pair or better plus 4 OESD, and 60 combos total {AQo, QTs+, KJs+, ATs+, A5s, 55-TT} that could get to the turn this way. 31/67 if you give him KQo, however that could also put KJo in his range which would also peel flop fold turn a lot. I would probably give up river but jamming brick rivers would look super strong and would fold 4 JTs that might bluff if checked to on river, might get a fold from TT, maybe even QTs, QJ, which altogether is about half of his get to the river range.
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