Frequency of Paired Flops
Posted by AF3
Posted by
AF3
posted in
Mid Stakes
Frequency of Paired Flops
I reasoned that if we draw one card from a deck of 52, we want to know the probability that drawing the next two cards will not produce a match. We can then subtract this probability from 1 to determine how often the flop is paired. Here is what we have:
We draw one card. That card is X. What are the chances that drawing another card will not match X?
51 card remaining
48 of them are different
==> 48/51 times we get a different card than X for the "second" card on the flop
Likewise, for the third card:
50 cards remaining
44 of them are different than the first two cards that were drawn
==> 44/50 times we get a different card for the "third" card on the flop
We then have the following for how often the flop is not paired:
(48/51)*(44/50) = (2112)/(2550) = .828235
We then have the following for how often the flop is paired:
1 - .828235 = .171765
Frequency of Paired Flops = 17.2 %
However, the consensus seems to be 16.94%. Can somebody tell me if this is just some rounding error? I just want to make sure that I'm doing the calculation right.
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