FPS? Some 'solid' reads, inaccurate assumptions
Posted by Daz
Posted by
Daz
posted in
Low Stakes
FPS? Some 'solid' reads, inaccurate assumptions
BN: $184.30
SB: $337.76
BB: $50
UTG: $202.27
HJ: $97
CO: $101.50 (Hero)
SB: $337.76
BB: $50
UTG: $202.27
HJ: $97
CO: $101.50 (Hero)
The 3bettor has <6% 3bet for each of the positions. He cbets then gives up on the turn.
Preflop
($1.50)
(6 Players)
Hero was dealt
8
9
UTG folds, HJ folds, Hero raises to $2.50, BN raises to $8, SB calls $7.50, BB folds, Hero calls $5.50
UTG folds, HJ folds, Hero raises to $2.50, BN raises to $8, SB calls $7.50, BB folds, Hero calls $5.50
At this point i'm giving him a tight, straight forward range. I wouldn't be auto calling OOP in a heads-up pot, but i'm expecting both players to play straight forward postflop.
Flop
($25.00)
3
6
4
(3 Players)
SB checks,
Hero checks,
BN bets $12,
SB folds,
Hero calls $12
He makes his standard auto cbet. If he checks back the turn i'm firing the river.
Turn
($49.00)
3
6
4
T
(2 Players)
Hero checks,
BN checks
River
($49.00)
3
6
4
T
5
(2 Players)
Hero bets $81.50, and is all in,
BN calls $81.50
So he checks back the turn as i expect him to do so. To maximise my fold equity in case he has exactly 99, maybe an Axx that was a pair i shove.
Final Pot
Hero has
8
9
BN has
2
K
BN
wins $209.20
This happens to me often. My assumptions of villain's ranges are inaccurate and as a result, i lose a buy in. Is the flop peel to loose? am i weighting my decision to heavily on the read that he checks back the turn giving up often?
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