Folding twopair on the river against NIT?
Posted by MatoStar
Posted by
MatoStar
posted in
Low Stakes
Folding twopair on the river against NIT?
Hi everyone :-)
After some hand review, decided to post this hand, since I am not sure if my river folds arent too assumptive and exploitable (or just if I am too naive).
I think up to the river its quite standard.
On the river I choose the fold button, because of several reasons:
1. People arent bluffing enough in this line
2. I cant dominate any part of his value betting range
3. His stats seems to be nitty so far 16/14 after 159hands
4. My range isnt capped (especially on this texture, where I think I have a range advantage)
5. My population read is that people arent value betting thin enough.
Is it enough to justify a river fold on almost any runout?
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For me, it's a call any way since he can do that with any flush draw, AQ, AJ type of hand. I'm gonna fold in the river if he bomb the pot but if í just 60%. I need to call with 2 pair.
You say your range isn't capped, but what better hands are you checking the flop with? With AK, AQ and sets I think you would mainly bet the flop? Probably the only better hand is AT. I don't know if you're opening ATo from MP, so it's mainly ATs (2 combos)
So your KT here is very high up in your range. The river bet is 60% pot, so you need 27% equity to call.
I don't think I can fold this one. He could be value-betting top pair here. Something like AQo or AJo. Both of these hands also block some straights so it makes sense to value bet them. And, of course, he could be bluffing with a FD.
I am checking on the flop a decent part of my range including better hands than my. For instance AK, or maybe even AA and A5 from time to time. So then KT is not as high on my range as you mentioned.
But it is irrelevant if he is betting on the river AQ and AJ for value. But since I said my reasons why I think he is not betting those hands for value, especially if he is a nit, I cant agree with you at this point..
Even if I would in villains shoes, I doubt that I would find a 3 streets of value with hands like AQ or AJ. Because you need at least 50% equity for a profitable value bet. And standard reg at this limit is not calling any Kx or worse pair on the river, so I would expect only Ax hands which he may already fold preflop (I am talking about the weaker Axs).
Some equilab: AJo against AQs-A2s,KTs,AQo-AJo has only 46,88%.
Thats the case when we are calling all Axs on the river and not slowplaying any better hands such as TT or AK. That being said AQ could be a close value bet in some cases. But in fact that on my site players value betting tendencies are a bit tighter than in general, I would rarely expect AQ from villain in this line.
Thanks for elaborating. I'll go through some of the points you make.
(a) You say that you are checking a fair number of strong hands on the flop here. You also say that you have a range advantage on this board (that is correct). These two statements seem discordant to me. If you have a range advantage, you should bet with most of your strong hands for value. This also allows you to c-bet with a wider range. At least that's the way I play -- people can have different styles.
(b) About whether BTN will value bet AQo or AJo here. You probably know the population tendencies better than me, so I can agree that he's not betting AJo for three streets of value.
However, he could be value-betting AQo -- against the same range you listed above ( AQs-A2s,KTs,AQo-AJo), AQo has 65% equity.
If you run KdTd against a range something like this:
TT,55,AQs,ATs,A5s,QsJs,QsTs,JsTs,Js9s,Ts9s,9s8s,8s7s,7s6s,6s5s,AQo,ATo
(These are nut hands, AQ and some flush draws)
You have 60% equity against this range. And you need 27% to call river. Even if you remove some of the draws and AQ combos, you'll comfortably reach 27%.
Okay, since I have a range advantage on this texture, I should be betting more than I tend to bet, so yeah KT could be on the top of my range which is quite important. (My bad :-))
Now let's talk about his range on the river. I think that's the main question. About your described villains range, I have few contradictions.
Firstly I really don't think that people are turning pairs into a bluff (hands like JsTs,QsTs,Ts9s,6s5s) with some optimal frequency.
Then I would add all QJs combos, since they have a gutter on the flop (maybe just 3of them).
In addition villain won't bet 3streets with all the other FDs 100% of the time and also with the mentioned AQ (he may also some of the AQ combos 3bet preflop or just check back on the flop).
That being said after this it becomes much closer than you described. But on the other side I have to say that thanks you now I see this spot from a bit different perspective. That being said it's not a clear fold obviously, but still don't think that this is a clear call. Maybe something between it. So I would be really grateful for some other opinions :-)
Oops, I completely missed QJ in my range. Sorry. That makes it a much closer call either way.
I don't think your hand really merits a raise at any point BUT from your opponents perspective, there is no reason for him to perceive you as being as strong as you are here. You can easily have a bunch of suited aces/missed flush draws, etc. here so I don't think it would be much of a stretch for AQ to be the bottom of his value betting range here. I think he almost always checks back AJ but AQ can make some sense as a value bet. I think, vs. your line, that I would be bet/folding AQ and my missed FD's here. I think you can comfortably call here given the price.
With some kind of read, I can be convinced that this is a fairly easy fold but in a vacuum I like a call here.
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