Folding Deep 50NL Zoom 6Max
Posted by CombatCarl
Posted by
CombatCarl
posted in
Low Stakes
Folding Deep 50NL Zoom 6Max
BN: $54.26
SB: $61.01
BB: $50
UTG: $136.55 (Hero)
HJ: $129.33
CO: $68.19
SB: $61.01
BB: $50
UTG: $136.55 (Hero)
HJ: $129.33
CO: $68.19
Preflop
($0.75)
(6 Players)
Hero was dealt
7
7
Hero raises to $1.50, HJ calls $1.50, CO folds, BN folds, SB folds, BB folds
Hero raises to $1.50, HJ calls $1.50, CO folds, BN folds, SB folds, BB folds
Flop
($3.75)
7
J
T
(2 Players)
Hero bets $2.50,
HJ raises to $9.50,
Hero calls $7
Turn
($22.75)
7
J
T
6
(2 Players)
Hero checks,
HJ bets $19.50,
Hero folds
Final Pot
HJ
wins $21.73
He is 22/18/af2.8/3bet8.7 234 hands
His stats looks almost exactly like mine in session of 1k hands.
Thoughts?
Loading 3 Comments...
Sounds nitty but i guess folding is fine
Most ppl would float AK and AQ otf flop i guess
Given positions both ranges are pretty strong anywas
So i guess there is KQ and some 78s exlusively for bluffing, while both players have all nutty hands in theire ranges
If we give our opponent a standard IP flat list of:
QQ-66, AJs+, KJs+, QJs, JTs, AQo+
7c7d on this flop versus opponents suspected range is 78.70%.
Hands that could potentially raise are any gutshot [AK,AQ,88,99], OESD [KQs], sets [JJ,TT], two pair[JTs] and overpair [QQ].
Assumption 1.0: opponent raises all gutshots as a bluff, overpairs, two pair, and sets for value, flat or folds everything else.
77 flop equity: 74.93%
77 Turn equity when opponent barrels all flop bluffs: 80%.
Assumption 1.1: opponent raises all gutshots as a bluff, overpairs, and sets for value, flat or folds everything else.
77 flop equity: 74.93%
77 Turn equity when opponents barrels half of all flop bluffs: 71.92%
^[QQ, JhJs, JhJc, JsJc, TdTh, TdTc, ThTc, AQs+, JhTh, JcTc, AhKd, AsKd, AsKh, AcKd, AcKh, AcKs]
Assumption 2.0. opponent raises only suited broadway gutshots with backdoor FD as a bluff, and sets, 2pr for value, flat or folds everything else.
77 flop equity: 49.21%
^[JhJs, JhJc, JsJc, TdTh, TdTc, ThTc, AdKd, AhKh, AsKs, AdQd, AhQh, AsQs, JhTh, JcTc]
77 Turn equity when opponent barrels all flop bluffs: 49.03%
Assumption 2.1. opponent raises only suited broadway gutshots with backdoor FD as a bluff, and sets, 2pr for value, flat or folds everything else.
77 flop equity: 49.21%
77 turn equity when opponent gives up all unimproved bluff equity on turn: 35%.
^[JhJs, JhJc, JsJc, TdTh, TdTc, ThTc, AsKs, AsQs, JhTh, JcTc]
Conclusion. Equity varies dramatically depending on the bluff tendencies of opponent.
Feel free to draw your own conclusions as you have the history with the player.
PokerStars Hand #114721935817: Hold'em No Limit ($200/$400 USD) - 2014/04/13 16:44:53 WET [2014/04/13 11:44:53 ET]
Table 'Menelaus IV' 6-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: Lottenice ($60876.85 in chips)
Seat 2: Trueteller ($52091.25 in chips)
Seat 3: Aron0621 ($47672.50 in chips)
Seat 4: 26071985 ($61390 in chips)
Seat 5: forhayley ($46775 in chips)
Seat 6: Ike Haxton ($27921 in chips)
Trueteller: posts small blind $200
Aron0621: posts big blind $400
*** HOLE CARDS ***
26071985: raises $500 to $900
forhayley: calls $900
Ike Haxton: folds
Lottenice: folds
Trueteller: folds
Aron0621: calls $500
*** FLOP *** [Qs 8c Kh]
Aron0621: checks
26071985: bets $1600
forhayley: calls $1600
Aron0621: folds
*** TURN *** [Qs 8c Kh] [7c]
26071985: checks
forhayley: bets $4388.40
26071985: raises $8611.60 to $13000
forhayley: calls $8611.60
*** RIVER *** [Qs 8c Kh 7c] [6h]
26071985: checks
forhayley: bets $16400
26071985: raises $29490 to $45890 and is all-in
forhayley: calls $14875 and is all-in
Uncalled bet ($14615) returned to 26071985
*** SHOW DOWN ***
26071985: shows [Ks Kc] (three of a kind, Kings)
forhayley: shows [Qc Qh] (three of a kind, Queens)
26071985 collected $94645 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $94650 | Rake $5
Board [Qs 8c Kh 7c 6h]
Seat 1: Lottenice (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: Trueteller (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 3: Aron0621 (big blind) folded on the Flop
Seat 4: 26071985 showed [Ks Kc] and won ($94645) with three of a kind, Kings
Seat 5: forhayley showed [Qc Qh] and lost with three of a kind, Queens
Seat 6: Ike Haxton folded before Flop (didn't bet)
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