Folding close to top of pair range? NL25
Posted by JCJordypants
Posted by JCJordypants posted in Low Stakes
Folding close to top of pair range? NL25
BB: $32.21
UTG: $25.14
CO: $7.57
BN: $28.47 (Hero)
Rake is $0.84
Seems like a fairly standard hand but I wondered in game if I'm only calling with trips or better in this spot am I being exploited? It seems like if we are then BB could barrel off loads of hands if we're calling that narrow. Given that I'm going to be 4betting JJ pretty much 100% here this makes TT the top of range pair wise so I'm doing a bit of work in Flopzilla.
Out of all the combos on the flop that I call with (22-TT, A2s-AQs, A9o-AQo, JTo, QJo+, 76s, 87s, 98s, T8s, T9s, J9s+ - 200 combos) I saw I would defend exactly half (44-TT, A9o+, KQ, A2s+)
On the turn to the second barrel I would probably start to fold my weaker pairs as well as KQ so that leaves me with 88-TT, A9o+ and A2s+ (72 combos).
On the river if I fold all my 1 pair hands and call with trips or better that's 54 combos or 75% of my turn calling range.
So looking at this it doesn't appear I would be exploited if I fold this and maybe could fold some of my weaker Ax if I have that many combos on the river.
Deciding to do the analysis while writing up this HH in the form of a question may not have been the best idea as I have just asked and seemingly answered my own question. I'm deciding to leave it in not only because I don't want to have wasted my time writing all this out but also hoping to get a discussion going on how much of our range we should be calling on the river and whether anyone would call with TT in this spot for the same reason I looked into this spot in the first place.
Maybe this would be the case if it were say BB v UTG as obviously I wouldn't defend the 3bet as wide, obviously the top of my pair range will be different as I won't be 4betting for value as wide either.
TL;DR - Over 1/4 of our flop defending range is trips or better by the river - probably not getting exploited by folding TT.
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