Folded Trip Aces Q kicker in 3bet pot
Posted by sgperfect
Posted by
sgperfect
posted in
Low Stakes
Folded Trip Aces Q kicker in 3bet pot
BN: $107.80
SB: $232.60
BB: $156.95 (Hero)
UTG: $55.80
HJ: $110.96
CO: $149.86
SB: $232.60
BB: $156.95 (Hero)
UTG: $55.80
HJ: $110.96
CO: $149.86
Preflop
($1.50)
(6 Players)
Hero was dealt
Q
A
UTG folds, HJ folds, CO folds, BN raises to $2.50, SB folds, Hero raises to $8.50, BN calls $6
UTG folds, HJ folds, CO folds, BN raises to $2.50, SB folds, Hero raises to $8.50, BN calls $6
Villain is playing 19/16 with a 50% fold to 3bet over a small sample, no real reads.
Flop
($18.50)
A
A
T
(2 Players)
Hero checks,
BN bets $9,
Hero calls $9
My plan on this flop is to check a lot to protect my pocket pairs, thoughts on flop ranges appreciated.
Turn
($36.50)
A
A
T
9
(2 Players)
Hero checks,
BN bets $26,
Hero calls $26
No real options here.
River
($88.50)
A
A
T
9
4
(2 Players)
Hero checks,
BN bets $64.30, and is all in
He bet quickly on every street and snap shoved the river, I thought that thinner shoves with worse than A8s would have thought for longer and even AJ might have considered a pot control line somewhere and not snapping. I regret the fold now considering how exploitable it is, is it close? (<--- wrote this before the following analysis)
Example 3 bet range ~16-17%
A9s+,KJs+,KQo, AJo+, 99+ and 27 * 4 combos of suited 'trash' including some suited Ks,Qs and lower gappers.
check/call flop (say I check everything, dunno if it's good)
all Ax, all broadway gutters, all flush draws, Tx and JJ-KK : fold ~40%
check/call turn
all Ax, all flushes, all KdXx, All full houses : fold ~40%
check/call river
if AK+: fold 36.6%
if AK+, AQd : fold 33.8%
if AQ+: fold 25%
so folding river doesn't seem exploitable now... what do you think?
Example 3 bet range ~16-17%
A9s+,KJs+,KQo, AJo+, 99+ and 27 * 4 combos of suited 'trash' including some suited Ks,Qs and lower gappers.
check/call flop (say I check everything, dunno if it's good)
all Ax, all broadway gutters, all flush draws, Tx and JJ-KK : fold ~40%
check/call turn
all Ax, all flushes, all KdXx, All full houses : fold ~40%
check/call river
if AK+: fold 36.6%
if AK+, AQd : fold 33.8%
if AQ+: fold 25%
so folding river doesn't seem exploitable now... what do you think?
Loading 10 Comments...
Not folding when you play it like this I think people are pretty likely to just stab all 3 presuming you have a lot of Tx and pocket pairs and can rep Ax for 3 streets - and if he has you bet then cooler i guess? W/out more reads its tough to fold - plus this will give you reads for future reference
i actually hate folding here. Once you check the flop ur hand looks so much like JJ-KK and he could be just barreling. Tbh he could also be value betting a worse hand as he may think that an A is the nuts once you have severly under repped your hand. Do you have any knowledge of the player here or are you readless?
Hate folding 2.
Good good, after starting off poker as a bluffy station I've morphed into a loose preflop, weak tight postflop reg, this has slowly gotten worse the last 5 weeks or so as I couldn't post a win over any stretch of time and thought that my leaks were the same as when I started.
After posting this hand, reviewing some stats and simply observing my redline take a hand-break right turn I see where I'm going wrong, i've been looking for reasons to fold and trying to justify them. I've been telling myself for too long "people don't bluff enough" "people are nits on the river" etc etc. I think my brain had set up a defense mechanism for seeing a SD and losing which has led me to loose a lot more woSD, the worst part is that I've progressively been tightening up and tightening up lately, so stupid I only realise now you can't win when you fold.
I'll just re-attach my balls after I've found them.
Additionally, folding so much and being conservative took so much fun out of the game (as does losing), so I'm glad I came to this realisation with help and can go back to playing poker keeping the pendulum somewhere in the middle.
Hopefully I can post some less embarrassing hands in the future.
I think when doing analysis on this spot, you shouldnt try and figure out if your play is exploitable, cuz that doesnt really matter here. Id figure out instead if calling river is +EV or not, and see how often he needs to be bluffing (or betting worse) in order for this to be a call
http://www.propokertools.com/simulations/show?b=AcAdTd9d4h&g=he&h1=Asqs&h2=AJ%2CAT%2CA9%2CA4%2CQdJd%2CKdqd%2CQdJ%2CKQd%2CQJd%2C8d7d%2Ckdjd%2C7d6d%2C9d7d%2C8d6d%2C6d5d&s=generic
dont know how to post the pic like others do. essentially he needs to be bluffing all kq and qj with diamond if more than that we're good or more hands A8<.
well... if you checked the flop to induce bluffs, you got it. so call.
flop check is not good. bet flop, turn, riv
i'd rather cbet here since hes gonna call with JQ/KQ/KJ a lot beside Ax and 10x+dd
i prefer c/c here on rainbow board
since u check the flop i'd call river
sure u dont block diamonds,but he can also have KxJd type of hand,all QJ that will take this line,plus he has all AJ in his range plus some other AXss that would triple for value vs ur range here always
I wouldn't go passive here postflop so this is an interesting hand considering he is pretty nitty. You only beat -AJ/bluffs. He could have AK/TT/flush. I would probably pull out my hair on river when he shoves and then fold >>> call, that's just a guesstimate.
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