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fold bottom set on dry board 3 way/100nl

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fold bottom set on dry board 3 way/100nl

here SB is weak/loose/active reg...BB good very loose reg

i think its a  fold ....BB range is stronger then 22... i thought he has 55/22....could have some K10 but i though SB might have

some AK in his range...i would have called SB shove





http://weaktight.com/6473231




8 Comments

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NoHubris 11 years, 1 month ago

Since you said the BB is a good, very loose reg, and the SB is weak/loose, I'd imagine the SB would have something like AK/AA, and the BB something like K10 (I'm not thinking in terms of ranges, but bear with me). Those are the only two hands that we beat that we could maybe expect to get it in.

So, if you were going to call the SB's shove, as you mentionned, I think the BB has two pairs, or maybe even A5c (because he is very loose), and that your set is good. 

However, I'm more scared of the SB's shove than the BB's call, because the SB's range includes KK and 10|10, which both have you beat.


SB's range when he shoves: KK, 10|10, AK.                                  | 27%

BB's range for calling all in: KK, 10|10, K5, K10, A5cc, 55,              |06%

You: 22                                                                                          | 67%


Of course, basing a decision upon these calculations isn't right, since it assumes that every hand in their range shows up at the same frequency, but I still think that it shows you made a significant mistake by folding your set. These ranges are based on the information you gave me (BB=lose, SB=w/L), but I'd love to see some stats, like the SB's 3b%, if you have them.


Hope this helped!


Piper420 11 years, 1 month ago

Why call the 3bet preflop w/ 22 if you are unwilling to get it in here?

NoHubris 11 years, 1 month ago

Great point (that I completely forgot to mention). If you're set mining in a multi-way pot, I don't think folding when your (loose) opponents show aggression is a good strategy. 


LUCA 11 years, 1 month ago

well off course i did flop a set and im happy with it

but the way the action was i think i should consider folding

i think its wrong to say"ok i set mine pre...and get it in anyway regardless"

this is a rare spot where my set doesnt look too good 


also when i said BB loose ive mentioned hes good

and one thing is being loose pre..one thing is get the money here where no draws got there on the turn


also BB range doesnt have K5 ...and since we are not deep i need to take A5ss out of it as well

prob some K10 but i didnt see many of those as well...they wouldnt play well 100bb knowing i will complete a lot pre..


anyway i'll post soon the showdown


thx for the comments tho





Bink182 11 years, 1 month ago

Phil Ivey got knocked out of the WSOP main event flopping set over set. Sets are hard to come by, I wouldn't make a habit of folding them. You can't win every hand anyways and if someone has a bigger set chalk it up as a cooler and be on your way IMO. (On dry boards of course, not including like 9TJ all spades or something else ridiculous.)


LUCA 11 years, 1 month ago

so i'm making a mistake thinking that at least one of the 2 guys got me beat here??

also they way the pot has been played..they look super strong...im not even sure BB would play AK like this..sure hes loose..sure he isnt great...but ...
whatever maybe im crazy..here the showdown...surprised by BB hand a little bit...

http://weaktight.com/6473409


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