Flush vs Over Jam - River

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Posted by posted in Low Stakes

Flush vs Over Jam - River

Blinds: $0.01/$0.02 (5 Players) UTG: $3.61
CO: $1.99
BN: $4.41
SB: $2.06 (Hero)
BB: $2.02
BB is 19/14/inf. 43h
Preflop ($0.03) Hero is SB with T 3
3 folds, Hero raises to $0.06, BB calls $0.04
Flop ($0.12) 6 2 5
Hero bets $0.09, BB calls $0.09
Turn ($0.30) 6 2 5 T
Hero checks, BB bets $0.12, Hero raises to $0.36, BB calls $0.24
River ($1.02) 6 2 5 T 6
Hero checks, BB bets $1.51 and is all in

5 Comments

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Jummyjamz 9 years, 5 months ago

What are you trying to accomplish with your turn play? This seems like a pretty str8forwad bet, bet, bet or bet, bet, x/c line spot to me.

turn c/r with a hand this far from the nuts puts you in a very awkward spot OTR I would think as a general rule. You may get called by some worse hands, but you still have another street to play and now you're OOP with a SDV hand basically.

David Jimenez 9 years, 5 months ago

well, basically what I'm thinking is that he shouldn't have much that continues calling on the turn but a lot that would bet when check to and some of that would try to bluffcatch a x/r

I don't like the board pairing on the river but his strong range such as sets would raise flop or 3bet turn, he doesn't see like a player that would have a large bluffing percentage on the river so what could he be value betting there?

taaazz 9 years, 5 months ago

+1 to Jummy - I would just keep betting ott.

I also don't agree that sets are raising this flop, which doesn't help either.

We need ~37% to make the call otr. I had him value jam ~50 combos, (Qhi+ flushes and boats), so it means that we need him to show up with ~30 bluff combos (we don't beat anything from his value range.

The most likely bluff combos are obv AsXx - assuming AKo 3b pre,
there are 31 AsXx combos total, so we'd need him to bluff AsXx every time to make the call.
Now, I think that at these stakes people are way too passive to do so, and not good enough to turn SDv hands (As5x/As2x/AsTx) into a bluff for us to make the call.

I also believe that if they're not gonna turn Tx with a spade into a bluff + overbets otr are usually da nutz.

All that said makes it a sigh fold imo.

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