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flush turn with set in raised pot

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flush turn with set in raised pot

BB: 12condoms: $209.68
HJ: npcomplete: $200
CO: zoltanlee: $124.30
BN: trust.me: $261.70
SB: ibetyouwin88: $201
villain 21/15/cbet 50/raise utg 13 - 1k hands

I think the standard line here is to bet turn and check back river, Were supposed to bet the turn because thats what we would do with all our bluffs right, BUT, i dont really like the thought of getting jammed on if we bet the turn because we wont have the odds to call.

What is your line/approach to these spots.
Preflop ($3.00) (5 Players)
trust.me was dealt 3 3
npcomplete raises to $6, zoltanlee folds, trust.me calls $6, ibetyouwin88 folds, 12condoms folds
Flop ($15.00) K 3 4 (2 Players)
npcomplete bets $10, trust.me raises to $32, npcomplete calls $22
Turn ($79.00) J (2 Players)
npcomplete checks

4 Comments

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WM2K 12 years, 1 month ago
Ya I can definitely understand the check although there is definitely a lot of reason to bet still

Holdem, Generic syntax
Board - ks3c4sjs
PLAYER_1 AsA,AsKs-AsTs,AsKy,KsQs-KsTs,QsJs,QsTs,JsTs,Ts9s,KxQs,KK,44
PLAYER_2 33

--- ALL-IN EQUITY ---
AsA,AsKs-AsTs,AsKy,K... --- Equity % = 52,1531% --- Wins Hi % = 52,1531% --- Ties Hi % = 0,0000% --- Wins Hi Count = 1308 --- Ties Hi Count = 0

33 --- Equity % = 47,8469% --- Wins Hi % = 47,8469% --- Ties Hi % = 0,0000% --- Wins Hi Count = 1200 --- Ties Hi Count = 0

I think this is a pretty pessimistic range and I think it can get better. KK/44 may 3 bet the flop and he can have KJ sometimes too. You are right though that its close if you bet and then get jammed on but I think you probably need to call it off. KK,44,AsKs-AsTs,AsKy,KsQs-KsTs,QsJs,QsTs,JsTs,Ts9s you have 33% and thats only with 3 combos of pair + draw hands which people will shove a non zero % of the time.

Fwiw I think that it can be a good idea to have some slowplays here and I would consider this set over 44 for that purpose. Mostly cause you can set over set 33 with 44 so the value is a little stronger and therefore more worthy of protecting and getting asap. Kinda splitting hairs though.
JuStAWicKEdDud3 12 years, 1 month ago
imo pretty easy bet/fold turn and decide on the river (villlaintendencies) whether to check behind or valueshove. but given his range, our EQ on the turn and he beeing a nit i tend to check back OTR.
james 12 years, 1 month ago
It's also interesting to note that when he's opening 13% UTG and the Ks and Js are on the board he probably doesn't have all that many flushes in his opening range.

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