Flopped bottom set 140bb's deep OOP in 3b Pot ($100nl)
Posted by arizonabay
Posted by
arizonabay
posted in
Low Stakes
Flopped bottom set 140bb's deep OOP in 3b Pot ($100nl)
140bb's effective stacks to start hand:
I open to 3x UTG and BTN 3b's to $6....I call. On the flop villain bets 1/2 pot and I decided to call. On the turn villain bets a tiny bit more than 1/2 pot and my instinct is to actually call turn and call river. What would you guys do OTT?
I have been at the table for about 25 hands and have not seen villain get out of line or play many hands....have not seen him reach showdown.
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I'm trying to improve my game in 3bet pots oop bc i think is a little poor, but this seems a board where you can cc flop w your entire continuing range....
CRing ott seems the worst option, both for the reason you gave and bc your ccing range would became weak
i didn't see it was a min3b pre :(
I thought you opened 2 and he 3bets 6
Versus my player pool it's x/c, x/c. Although it's probably a x/f on a T or 9 river.
Villain is a fish based on his 3b sizing so I raise flop, bomb turn, shove river. As played, raise turn, shove river. He's probably not folding a J even. What our range is doesn't matter.
First of all, there are very few hands that call and beat you vs the hands that call and lose to you. Therefore, I don't think you should be folding or pot-controlling this hand unless you have a rock solid tell, so your goal should be to get as much money in the pot. That being said, let's dive in.
I partially agree with GInTheorem. As played I would raise turn and shove river as he said, but ideally I would overbet the flop to try to inflate the pot early on.
If the player is semi-advanced, he's going to get curious a good % of the time when you donk overbet and either call or raise with AQ/AJ/KK/AA.
A weaker player will often call with a draw or a single pair (AQ/AJ/KK/AA) and he can call down multiple streets thinking only T9 beats him and that T9 isn't part (or a very small part) of you 3b calling range.
A x/r on the flop would scare away most good players, so I think if you can replay from the start, donk-overbetting the flop is the best play.
What do you do if villain 3b's turn?
I don't think villain will be stone cold bluffing very often by 3betting on the turn, so I'll just put his turn 3betting range against our set.
I think the most likely consist of combo draws that cbet you on the flop (AKcc, ATcc), 2 pairs (QJs), sets (QQ, 77, JJ), 1 pair+draw combo (AJcc, KJcc), overpairs (KK, AA) and of course the straight (T9s). This gives us a range of (JJ+,77,AcKc,AcJc,AcTc,KcJc,QJs,T9s) for the villain. I tried to give him the strongest plausible range I could think of just to see if calling is close to break even, so this doesn't include any bluffs or weak draws he may have.
Assuming we x/r at about $40, and he 3b jams his stack (it wouldn't make sense to 3bet less with his stack size, since he's committing himself and you would commit yourself to the pot by calling), you would have to call $87.37 to win $194.87, so you have to be right 30.96% of the time to break even (2.23:1 odds).
Against the range I mentionned earlier, you have a 65.68% of winning, which is a lot more than you need to be breaking even when calling, so from a purely mathematical standpoint, I would call.
*Just a little reminder that the range I gave him was assuming he never 3bet shoves complete air, so calling may be even more profitable than 65%.
*EDIT: Pot odds corrected, thanks for the replies guys.OK - Then my in game thoughts were a little better than my post game...of course my post game was influenced by results, I try to be as non-results oriented as I can but sometimes it is difficult. I did x/r turn to ~$43 and villain did 3b small to ~$85....and I just stuck it in. He rolled over JJ, and thats when I began questioning whether or not I overplayed it, I had a tiny bit of doubt before I x/r and so when I ran into a worst case scenario that led to me posting a hand on the forums! (I think its only the 2nd or 3rd here at RIO and I have posted less than 10 lifetime). Thanks for the help RIO!
edit: I guess when I said instinct in OP I was referring to the tiny bit of doubt....I call the voices in my head my "instinct" to avoid the men in white coats ;)
I just ran the equities again assuming villain just calls w/ AA, KK but 3b's the rest of the hands you assigned him and my equity is still 46.89%. So even if villain only shoves 2pair+ and big draws - its a slightly profitable call.
hubris, the 44.84% is incorrect I believe. you need lower percentage i believe
FIVEbetbLUFF: What did I miss?
actually, I think 5b is right...if it is 2.23:1 we would divide 1/3.23 not 2.23 to get a percentage and that is 30.96%.....at least I am 99.9% sure that is the way it is done.
edit: just like when we get 2:1 on the river, we don't need to win 50% but only 33%.
you're getting 2.23:1 odds. when you have even 2:1, you only need 33% equity
You guys are absolutely right, my mistake.
If we are getting 2.23:1 odds we would divide 1/3.23 not 2.23 to get a percentage and that is 30.96%.
That's absolutely right, thanks for the correction guys. I'll edit my original post to show the right odds.
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