Flop play?

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Posted by posted in Mid Stakes

Flop play?

BN: Hero: $200
SB: johnyq2: $96
BB: ERA7ER: $205.60
UTG: msPokerJ: $212.74
HJ: Mick H P: $207.96
CO: Jotie127: $170.08
Preflop ($3.00) (6 Players)
Hero was dealt A 7
msPokerJ folds, Mick H P raises to $4, Jotie127 calls $4, Hero raises to $16, johnyq2 folds, ERA7ER folds, Mick H P folds, Jotie127 calls $12
I don't usually squeeze this light, but Jotie is a recreational player who likely overcalled with a wide range, and it's probably slightly +EV with the A blocker/overcard.
Flop ($39.00) 5 4 6 (2 Players)
Jotie127 checks, Hero bets $20, Jotie127 raises to $50
I don't expect him to have too much of this board. Maybe some sets, but I think he mostly has hands like KQ etc.
But he raises. I think he does this with 78/65/44/55/66, FDs, bluffs, semi-bluffs with equity, and hands like 99 that wanted a safe flop.

Since he's going to jam on nearly every turn card, we'll only get one card to hit the straight. 6 nut outs + 2 spade outs and we have 17% equity max., so we don't get the right price to peel once.

So this is an easy fold, right? Or do you guys like jamming? If he bluff here a moderate amount, a shove would be +EV. We're always live, and we pick up a ton of chips when he does fold.

Thoughts?

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