Flop overpair vs check/push (overbet)

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Posted by posted in Mid Stakes

Flop overpair vs check/push (overbet)

UTG: $609
LJ: $276.20
HJ: $609
CO: $648.44 (Hero)
BN: $808.31
SB: $736.90
BB: $240
18/16 Regular
Preflop ($9.00) (7 Players)
Hero was dealt A A
UTG raises to $18, LJ folds, HJ folds, Hero calls $18, BN folds, SB calls $15, BB folds
I decided to non3bet due to his high fold3bet, and there is Squeezers at blinds
Flop ($60.00) T 7 K (3 Players)
SB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets $38.39, SB folds, UTG raises to $591, and is all in, Hero folds
I need to win 44% of the times, and I don't have any read of the villain
Final Pot
UTG wins $133.98
It depends how wide we set the villain's range to decide it's a easy fold, easy call, or borderline call/fold

MP2 39.23% AdAs
MP3 60.58% KK, TT, 77, AhKh, AhQh, KhQh, AhJh, KhJh, QhJh, AhTh, KhTh, QhTh, JhTh, Ah9h, Qh9h, Jh9h, Ah8h, Ah7h, Ah6h, Ah5h, Ah4h, Ah3h, Ah2h

From that range, I can remove KK, add some missclick/tilt combos and I would have a better decision

Help me assigning him range!

Greetings :)

5 Comments

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Tommi Heikinniemi 12 years, 2 months ago
Sickly weird hand. Do you have many hands from him? If he is very solid over thousands of hands and done good in this current session I would say hero fold but in any other case I would snap call. He probably has monster draw but you still have around 50% or more if it's Axh stylish. You don't also know what's happened to him on other tables. Maybe he is just overplaying AK in frustration? It makes it lot easier for u that you haven't raised pf so your monster is hidden and he can actually push optimistic Kx.
Serdec 12 years, 2 months ago
"Do you have many hands from him?" Yes, about 2k hands, he is a solid regular player, and I was rlly confused at the hand :(
James Hudson 12 years, 2 months ago
Call, if he played a hand better than yours like this then congrats to him. You're going to have so few hands that can bet call for an entire stack here that his play is atrocious if he hit 2pair+. I'd expect to see a combo draw or naked flush draw a lot.
Jugi6 12 years, 2 months ago
2k hands and this is the first hand where does something weird? If the poker client allows to make missclick all-ins then this seems just pretty easy call. If not, then it is pretty close I guess.

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