Flop defending
Posted by Wildspeaker
Posted by
Wildspeaker
posted in
Mid Stakes
Flop defending
So I am struggling a bit with defending postflop against Cbets.
On the river if our opponent bets full pot in a balanced way he should be bluffing 1/3 of the time to make our call with a bluffcatcher indifferent, right? Because we are getting 2-1 we need to win 33% of the time. If he bluffs 1/3 of the time we will be winning exactly 33%.
So how does this relate to the flop? Lets say the pot on the flop is 12$ and our opponent bets 8.50$. Now on the river we would be defending about 29% of the time (8.50$/(12$+8.50$+8.50$). But to me it seems kind of strange to defend less on the flop against a smaller bet instead of more. I understand that hands on the flop still have equity while on the river they either win or lose. But what kind of impact does this have on our flop play?
So how do we decide how much we should be defending on flop (and turn)?
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I'm not sure if I follow what you're asking but we should be defending on the flop more vs cbets since villain should have a 2:1 bluff:value ratio with a larger betsize.
On the turn the ratio gets closer to 1:1.
Why does his bluff ratio have to be larger on flop? I never fully grasped this. Doesnt that just mean we can start raising a lot on flop?
But what I mean is on the river we defend a % in relation to our odss to call in equilibrium. With a pot sized bet, at equilibrium, we defend 33% on the river. What I mean is how do we figure out how much to defend on the flop?.
Lets say our opponent pots the flop, why is it that on the river we call 33% at equilibrium, but we don't on the flop? Or do we?
I believe, but could definitely be wrong,that our bluff:value ratio is higher on the flop due to draws and other hands that have equity whereas the river is different since there's obviously no more cards to come. Someone please correct me if I'm wrong!
And I'm not sure if there is even a way to find out precisely how much to defend on the flop due to how many variables there are with the board changing on the turn and river.
I figured equity would have something to do with what we do on flop as opposed to river. Still there should be some optimal defense frequency on flop right?
The dryer (more dry, I dont know) the board is, the more air villain has, the more he will bet his air, therefore you should bluff raise or float more. The draw-heavier the board, the less he will bet pure air,(because you can continue with more hands) but more draws, which have decent equity, so your overall equity with your single pair, high card hands decrease, therefore you should defend less. Monotone boards are great to bluffraise tough with or without blockers.
You also dont need to "defend" against something (by the way what is to defend, our strategy, our ranges our ego ?) unless you got a solid reason to think you are being exploited.
my ego obv B-)
I am asking from a GTO standpoint. hether you like GT or not its what I want to know. So my opponents real strategy does not matter to me. Only his strategy at equilibrium (or an approximation).
So if someone with a GT background could add to this that would be appreciated.
Theoretically you should defend the Flop at a frequency that deters Villain from being able to wrecklessly bluff (keeping his weakest hands indifferent between checking and betting)
Since even very weak hands usually have some equity on the flop, villain would still likely be making too much money with these hands if you only defended the bare minimum on the flop. He still has equity and by just calling you give him the opportunity to realize that EQ.
-> We should be defending slightly more that 1-a on the flop to make up for that
Having said this I that I think our defense frequency on the flop should be a function of the profitability of our Range.
Often it will simply be impossible to defend certain flops at a sufficient frequency since our range misses the Flop very often / or Villains Range hits very hard. We have to conceit and Villain can be betting a ton on these flops.
However there will also be flops that favour our range and then we should not shy away from defending significantly more than 1-a.
Bottom Line: Defend every hand on the flop that you can profitably continue with
I mean I agree with you dozzer, but defend every hand you profitably can has nothing to do with GT. Does this mean we simply have no clue?
Also lets say the flop hits our opponent well and we need to XF a lot. There should still be an equilibrium in which we maximize our minimum EV (our minimum EV on this type of flop will just be lower than on a flop that favors us more).
You guys seem a bit paranoid about being exploited like "OMG he c-bets 85% percent on average if have to call with Q high or I get run over".
Some people dont realize that a fold is often the best and easiest way to exploit betting range.
Villain can have 2:1 bluffs otf because on every street villain drops some bluffs and by the river his range just becomes more value. You could do some hand examples to see how that works.
If pot is $12 and villain bets $8.50 you defend around 55-58% somewhere in there.
Nah I get how that works. But what I was wondering is: given that he is weighted so much towards bluffs on the flop, would it be possible to exploit that fact by raising flop a lot?
If villain has a polarized range then he will have more weak hands to bet flop with but bluffs often have equity too and it is correct to bluff a lot otf so there is nothing really to exploit. You should raise a fair bit to cb yes but just because villain may have say KQ on 952 doesn't mean he will b/f. If villain is decent they will not simply fold because they don't have a strong hand.
Flop cbets in single raised pots are rarely polarized.
Ok then xr will work even less. I don;t think ppl can just go nuts with xr just because a lot of a flop cb range are bluffs.
that's why. and the composition of both ranges on a particular flop will dictate exactly the ratio of bluffs:value he can use to hold that general indifference.
there is no rigid formula for this OTF. 1-a goes out the window when hero's range loses more by trying to defend 1-a than by overfolding. in those cases villain uses higher the c-bet fqcys -- but it's not exploitative, it's just the new equilibrium for that texture.
Nick, what should our value/bluff ratio be on the turn?
there's no rigid formula, just like OTF. but 1:1 i think is usally an ok estimate
if you want to know more about bluff:value ratios I made a video about them not too long ago: http://www.runitonce.com/pro-training/videos/bluff-value-ratios/
Thanks a lot guys!
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