Flop check back, time to bluff?
Posted by Ryan
Posted by
Ryan
posted in
Mid Stakes
Flop check back, time to bluff?
Whale limp(90% range)
Hero raise Bttn KxQc $25 900eff
Bb reg calls cover
Whale calls about same stack depth
Flop Tx9c6c
Checks thru
Turn 7x
Checks to hero
Pot $70
Bet $50
Bb call, whale fold
Riv blank
Pot $170
Bb check
Hero?
I think flop can potentially be a bet w the Qc in hand, but I decided I would bet my KcQx combos before this one. I think the BB cold call range will connect very well on this board, so I don’t think I’m going to be overly aggressive on flop multi-way here. It’s pretty rough to get check raises off our equity too here when the whale can make second nut hands on turn and make huge mistake, or we can just bink a K/Q outright
Not 100% confident about turn/river here however. What do you think. I know what I did and will reveal after some discussion. I think my line is solid, but interested to see what some of y’all would do
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River is a tough spot. Your have zero showdown value with a check back, but you do have to give up sometimes.
BB can have a lot of very strong hands here. The board favors their range more than it favors yours. They likely rangecheck flop, then play passively on the multiway connected turn card. It's difficult for you to represent 8x straights since you ISO'd pre. Your blockers aren't great either since you potentially block a number of missed flush/straight draws.
I lean towards a give up on the river because BBs range is probably overpowered and underrepped.
I think I have a lot of 8x in range. With a 90% whale, im probably isolating A8o preflop for example. I will also have things like 88, 86s, 98s, some T8s, etc Bb is cold calling 5x on Bb, so his 8x should only be 88, A8s, and maybe 98s/87s. While he can have prob all sets and some ATs/KTs/JTs(cc combos) that flat pre with the whale involved
Also some 8x may get lead on turn but def some getting checked to bluff catch vs whale and me.
Point is I think there is quite a bit of 8x in my range, and quite a bit of sets and a few top pair that are in tough shape facing a large river bet.
I think TT and below get flat called preflop here to keep the whale involved. The whale is playing things like K2o and 94o preflop, so there’s plenty incentive
I guess what I’m getting at, is I don’t think a set is calling river vs a large sizing, and if he folds all sets plus his Txcc combos, and two pair on river, then we have a profitable bluff with any two cards. And if he doesn’t defend 87s preflop, then that tilts things further in our favor, or if he ever bets turn w 8x same thing.
I also think a large sizing can be backed by our range, since I think we have maybe 20+ 8x combos. (A8-14, T8s-1, 98s-3, 68s-3. Maybe some K8s gets checked back too or Q8s). We are betting 8x+ for value I think only on this river so very polar. Balanced we do prob need to give up some or we are overbluffing, but also think it will be very hard for most to realize this and will likely defend only 8x. So overbluffing could just be the highest ev line at this node, unless of course we get called lighter than I’m anticipating. Then we need to recalibrate
Folds
66, 77, 99, TT - 12
ATcc, KTcc, JTcc, T9s -5
A7cc - 1
Total 18
Calls
88 -6
A8s-3
98s- 3
87s -3
Total:15
Maybe some 8x gets lead turn as well making him more vulnerable, maybe he has 76s in range to fold, maybe more Tx call turn then I give him credit for, maybe some 87s gets raised or folded pre.
Bluff seems alright, a lot of 8x lead the turn I would imagine.
What kind of sizing do you think is good? I used a small overbet 200 into 170. But think maybe the extra money is unnecessary and could go more like pot. Would sizing do you think makes the most “sense”?
I think big since I’m only betting 8x, but big can mean many things. I do think he is going to be slightly more capped than I am, even tho I prob cbet all my J8s on flop honestly, but don’t think he ever flats J8s
Yeah I like a slight overbet, we only really want to be betting a straight or a bluff so our range is extremely polarized. But I wouldn't go absolutely huge either because villain can also have 8x sometimes so going overly large shrinks villains calling range to a point where he only calls 8x.
I kind of want to achieve that however ,to where he only calls w 8x. Otherwise I think the bet becomes worst, since his range is already quite narrow. I think around pot to what I bet achieves this. So any bigger probably is just burning.
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