First time Hand History analysis request - How should I study something like this?
Posted by captncanary
Posted by
captncanary
posted in
Mid Stakes
First time Hand History analysis request - How should I study something like this?
Hi guys. I'm looking to step into some proper analysis of hand histories. I had a hand last night. I think my play was fine actually. But I'd like to work out for sure. So here goes:
Playing $5/10 6max NLHE with $1k effective stacks. I open 8s9s to $25 from HJ, and CO raises to $75. Folds around to me and I call (maybe too loose but size seems small enough to call?). Flop 6h5s2s, I check, CO bets $95 and I shove $925.
My thinking at the time was I have 2 overs, a gutshot and flush draw. Opponent should have a strong range but mostly high cards and isn't hitting this flop often. So against his AK/AQ type hands I may have 18 outs, and against overpairs I have 12 outs so not a big dog. Shove looks to me like it has a lot of fold equity and if called I've got over 40% equity.
I know the result doesn't matter too much - I'm interested in EV of this play.
But for those who want to know, villain called with 6c5c and I won with 7h4h runout.
Interested to hear constructive thoughts.
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I don’t think shoving makes sense strategically. You probably want to have a smaller size, like 2.5-3x, which leaves a decision for you to make on turns. The problem is, are you taking this line with your value hands, and if you are, what are you doing with your hands that have less equity but that may want to be check raised sometimes(maybe a 98s hand with a backdoor)
I think jamming is +ev due
Your equity. But maybe not the highest ev line. You’re stacking off regardless tho if he jams.
Yeah, I agree with that. If I think about a wider range, I probably want to raise but not shove with some overpairs or sets, so its likely better to put this hand in that smaller raise range too. I guess I'm looking for a more definitive answer like how you might use a solver to see how good/bad my play was and how much better another approach could be. I mean, if a smaller raise isn't much better EV then it might make sense to keep life simple and have a shove range in this spot to avoid having to deal with difficult turns OOP. I think the AA, KK, QQ are calling the shove anyway, but this might get some middling pairs or bigger flush draws to fold?
captncanary
Sure you can just jam all your draws. But it makes you super easy to play against.
If you plug it into a solver it’s probably significant. You’re not playing against a silver and can be fine against a random fish who you can do whatever against. But against someone you play all the time, prob good to not be transparent
It’s also not that hard a decision on turn. You can prob jam a lot with so much equity even into a range that will call off a lot, as you are almost breaking even already with the amount of equity you have and the risk/reward.
If you think exploitively people will overfold with overpairs however, then jamming could be higher ev for sure. Just not sure that’s happening because it looks like you have what you have when you do this imo. It’s still tough to call off tho against a random (in live especially), because there are guys who just rip the nuts here like this
I like the shove. We have 66, 55, 65s, 87s all in our range that can apply pressure to the unpaired parts of his range, AKs/o, AQ. I think with this specific holding it is good to maximize fold equity to force out some hands from calling like overcards with backdoor flushdraw etc. When called, we are going to see a lot of over pairs with a heart, some nut flush draws, which we all have pretty decent equity against. I like the play
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