Fire 3rd Barrel?
Posted by kobeizdabest
Posted by kobeizdabest posted in Mid Stakes
Fire 3rd Barrel?
Playing $1/2 6 Max on Bovada
Effective Stack: $136
I raise UTG + 1 with QsJs. Mp Calls $6, SB calls $6.
Flop ($20): 2c5s3c
I decided to cbet $12. With my backdoor flush draw and two overcards, I thought I could bet the turn on enough cards to make it profitable to cbet on the flop. MP folds and SB calls.
Turn ($44): 2h
SB checks and I bet $26.
Is this spew? I figured that sb could float this flop with a lot of his Aces and big overcards. I thought I could get almost all of those combos to fold on the turn. SB calls. I figured at this point SB range is weighted heavily toward medium pocket pairs (66-99).
River ($96): Kh
$92 effective left behind. SB checks. Do I bluff shove this river? I think it puts pressure on all his holdings since the majority of his range is made up of marginal hands. I wouldn't be repping much. I would shove for value here with AA, AK/KQ (if I 2 barreled with them so only some % of these are in my range), 33, 55, KK, 22. I would thin value bet QQ-88, but I would assume that villain thinks we would value bet smaller with these holdings, rather than shoving. Therefore, is jamming on this river -EV against a thinking player?
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