Facing river jam with set of QQ

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Facing river jam with set of QQ

BIG10 - $1,000 GTD 125/250

Seat 1: KidScratch2 (15662).
Seat 2: HERE4DALLULZ (12214).
Seat 3: leaf3128 (21846).
Seat 5: IncrediGedge (3812).
Seat 6: Fl0ppedEm (29078).
Seat 8: Portlander29 (5000).
Seat 9: apeiron77 (34263).

Hero is Dealt QhQc
Folds to Hero on BTN and raises to 555
SB Calls
BB calls

FLOP Qd 5d 8c (1665)
SB checks
BB bets 460
Hero calls. Thoughts?
SB calls

Turn 10d (3045)
SB checks
BB checks
Hero bets 1688
SB raises to 4250
BB folds
Hero calls

River 6s (11045)
SB jams 6924
Hero calls

SB shows flush KJdd
Hero set of QQ

4 Comments

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Tdogger88 7 years, 7 months ago

I think because SB is involved in this hand too, raising flop is much better. If BB bet a larger size then we could consider calling, but at that size we'll just be leaving a huge price on the table for SB and we miss out on value. I also think betting the turn is a mistake. A very good portion of both BB and SBs ranges are flush draws and when they make their draw, neither fold to a single bet. So the question is do they call with worse? Well when we call flop our most likely hand is at least a Q. So say SB had 98 and thinks well we could call with a flush draw on the flop, maybe BB is betting with a flush draw or 76 or something, maybe has A high and just wants to represent, the 8 can be good, so he calls. The flush comes in and we bet. Either we made our flush draw or we have a queen. His 8 is no good and he lets it go (probably). Like we have to really hope that one of our opponents has something like a single pair with the Ad.

Now you might say that there are a lot of bad river cards, but I'm not really sure there are. Like diamonds suck, but then its really just a 9. Other cards will often times just improve their hand but still leave it 2nd best. A, K, J, 7, 6, etc. ... They all just turn single pairs into 2 pair which likely leads to more thin value betting that we can snap off. So when we bet turn and THEN get raised, what are we expecting to happen when we call? If he has a FD and misses he can't stop betting because he definitely loses. So if we feel like that's the most likely betting line then why not just check back turn and pay off one bet instead of 3?

So all in all, this is a super annoying spot but I think raise flop for sure. As played on flop, check back turn (we have other hands that we can turn into bluffs here and better hands we can value bet). After betting turn I'm not sure about calling there, I wouldn't hate a fold but I understand the call too. As played I would fold river.

Kid_Scratch2 7 years, 7 months ago

yeah huge mistake not raising flop. At that time i dont know why i felt id get more value by letting the SB come along and call but definitely took the wrong line there.

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