Facing reraise with second nutflush on river! Need help!
Posted by oslonick
Posted by
oslonick
posted in
Low Stakes
Facing reraise with second nutflush on river! Need help!
SB: $10.95 (Hero)
BB: $5.00
UTG: $12.30
MP: $7.03
CO: $12.81
MP wins $14.55
Rake is $0.69
Hey guys. So I am playing zoom nl 10, and this have been some instances with this situations lately. My biggest question here is. Are we value towning the raise on river?
I think the raise would be good for bluffs and flushes on similar board, but Im not sure if we are getting paid of with a raise enough, so the spots is more EV to check trough, because we only get called/raised when they are having nuts.In this specific scenario I cant fold to the pot odds, but I still think it could be an argument to exploit-fold in these situations.
Pokermath is not my strongsuit, so I am still trying to figure this out. How can I calculate how many times villain needs to bluff, for this to be breakeven EV? If someone has a easy to understand guide to pokermath - I would love to be linked. I do understand math, but It just takes some time to understand the formulas. Im not a natural mathematician - you can say :)
-Nick!
Loading 7 Comments...
Biggest problem with this hand is preflop. SB vs MP 3b range needs to be much tighter than K5s. Guy is trending towards fish simply due to his stack depth. K5s has horrible board coverage and it is a nightmare to play OOP.
That being said, I can't really critique you flop/turn line. Not much else you can do.
River is intriguing. Not sure I want to be putting in $$$$$ aggressively in this spot MW. The line is strange to check/call a bet and raise on the flop, check a completing turn then lead a brick river after turn checks through. However, I am not sure that checking is better either since he is going to check back all his mediocre showdown value stuff that you can potentially extract value from.
I am pretty sure if we bet river, we have to bet/call as played. Need about 20%, we should have 25%+ here. Against reasonable Axhh combos and QJhh, we have exactly that. Add in a spazz or 98hh and you are going to have @ 40% or so.
Thanks for the reply. I have a tighter sb range vs regs and people with a decent ralse fold gap. But the guy was overfolding to 3b and opening a lot of hands, so I dont mind iso 3bet for.fold or get a call hu, because villain has so many jx, gappers and so.on. but.on a general note - I 100% agree. Dont know what you are playing, but what are your thoughts on the coldcalls of 3b in bb? I noticed it happens a lot. Is this common in your field ?
Its very common in my pool. This is a big part of why I would choose a different strategy from SB vs MP (we want better playability post flop). If I was going to start adding a polar element to my range in spots like this, I would probably choose stuff like 76s (hits flops more often) or A5-A2s. Your board coverage is just so much better. For the most part though, in uber fishy environments, I would mostly stick with a tight, linear approach in instances like this.
Start with preflop, it costing you way more money than a spot like calling river raise. K5s not close in these positions. On river you need to get money in, not close either
While MP might be overfolding to 3bets, K5s is way too loose to 3bet against an MP open. Think of it this way: even if he's opening something like 25% of hands in MP, that would correspond to roughly a "normal" CO open. Would you 3-bet K5s against a normal CO open?
In general, while it's ok to take Villain tendencies into account, don't go overboard with trying to exploit them. The way to use your reads is to decide between marginal decisions. So, suppose it's really close between 3betting and folding this hand, then you can 3bet based on Villain tendencies.
Anyway, postflop seems well played. You could even 3bet the river, but calling is probably better. Min-raises on the river are usually nutted and rarely complete air.
Thanks for advice, and I do agree with the preflop analysis.
Only problem I find with calling is - do villain have anything Else then nutflush here. Been to 8-10 similar spots, and I think they are very polarized here. But say villain is maniac and raises marginal hands like three of a kind, 30% time. Would we make money by Just overfolding? Even if he bluffs 3/10?
To see how much equity you need, you just calculate: bet size / pot size after you call. So you need 2.73 / 15.24 or about 18% equity to call. So if Villain is bluffing 30%, you will profit.
Also, keep in mind that Villain could be value-betting worse. It's not inconceivable that Villain is raising a non-nut flush here. If there's even a small chance that he's value betting worse (in addition to the cases where he's bluffing), it's pretty much always profitable to call.
In general, when you have the second nut flush, you typically should not be looking to fold.
Be the first to add a comment