Seems like an easy fold to me. I mean, what potential bluffs should he have in his 12% UTG-raising-range, even moreso as you block KQ? Furthermore it could just be that he intended to x/r the turn, which you didn´t allow.

Ya ok. Makes sense.

I agree, bad pot odds + tight UTG range + he checked on the nut turn bluffing card makes it seem unlikely he's bluffing here to me.

AA is a pretty likely hand. A lot of players at the lower stakes can't check turns IP, so Villian might have planned to c/r.
Wouldn't rule out a hand like AK that wants to c/c, and feels you have some sort of PP, so he bombs it.
He probably doesn't have many 7x in his opening range, though the bet-check-bomb line make sense with it.

Pretty sure you folded, and it's probably the right play, but I'm a bit suspicious here.

I'm Leaning towards a call.  Based on these Deductions i've made for this specific scenario

-With VIllains 12% UTG opening range, i doubt he has that many 7X in his river value betting range

-Villains Bet on river is polarized to full-house/Missed Draws, and i dont think villain is capable of potting river with a sole AX hand range

-It doesnt make sense why villain isnt value betting turn with his Set handrange when the board texture is extremely Wet.  Furthermore, AX is a perfect scare card that benefits more of his UTG opening range than that of mine

-The 7X on river is essentially a brick card

-His value range is polarized, and thus consists of 44(3 combos)+55( 3 combos)+AA( 3 combos)+77(1 combo)=10 value combos

- ($21.5/$64.5)=33% so we need to be correct 33% of times for our call to BEP

- Villain has apprx 21 combos of Heart FD in his 12% UTG opening range, and villain only needs to be bluffing with 6 combos of missed FD on river for our call to be +EV.

X=6 bluff combos    Y=10 Value combos we set for villain

(X/X+Y)=(6/16)=37.5%

**) in essence, we shouldnt be analyzing this situation based on the absolute hand strength of our hand. It's not like, "I have QQ middle pair, i have to fold now since villain pots river" type of situation. We have to   asses our range vs villains range up to river, and see if his line is plausible with what he's repping.

you can place a heart :P

OP. i actually think the river situation is relatively marginal. The river call/fold should be based solely on how Villain plays his value-range on turn, when OOP.  What part of his hand range has he been taking the Bet/Check/Bet line, Is villain taking the Bet/Bet/Bet line with his bluffs, etc... Your assessment of his turn strategy dictates whether your calling his river PSB.

Based on the given info provided " Flop c bet 67% and turn bet 58% so he seems pretty aggressive.", i would assume villain to be betting a high % of his flop continuance range on turn, which further cuts off the portion of his value range. If he doesnt barrel with his value range, then what is he betting on the turn with?

In general, you shouldnt be making assumptions of villain merging his value-range by Potting AX on river, because u checked turn.  SSNL players usually have constant ranges on how to play certain hands exactly the same in each scenario.

Why didnt you bet the turn?

For protection, maybe some pps call. Makes it a whole lot easier, and just fold vs x/r since he isnt bluffing a lot there because he opened UTG.

On the turn I don't mind checking back cuz we are not particularly worried about giving a free card, and the over card he is most likely to have in his range is already on the board.  When he pots the river, and the thinking most likely applies to smaller and bigger bets, I am fine with a fold vs a range I suspect has AK, discounted AQ, possibly some AJs, and any value hands (sets, any surprising 2 pr he might have) he was looking to x/r on the turn.  Even though QQ removes some "value" hands from his range, if we really think he is bluffing then calling with 88 is very close to calling with QQ, and I doubt a post would be made about calling in this spot with 88.