Facing an overbet OTR vs capped range!
Posted by MatoStar
Posted by
MatoStar
posted in
Low Stakes
Facing an overbet OTR vs capped range!
Hi guys,
I decided to post this hand to ask what do you think that villain is overbetting on the river
I think villain barely has some slowplay sets- since he has got an opportunity to either raise the flop or stab on the turn.
He possibly can have some random collected twopairs such as Q2s,92s,62s, but with the first mentioned I would expect him to stab the turn some of the time and the rest I doubt he is calling preflop. possibly slowplayed 96s, Q9s and Q6s. At the end he could hit the set on the river. .
That being said I think we can say that villain is going to have approximately 10value hands - even probably less than that
So the question is if villain is capable of bluffing with at least 4 or 5 combos? I would say yes even though he is probably betting most of his bluffs on the turn.. my range looks so weak and he has still some Ax or weaker hands which he could x back on the turn and fire the river.
However, he can have some Qx, cant he? I would expect him to be stabbing the turn or choose a smaller sizing on the river, (And also raising the flop sometimes) but still hands like Qjo,QTo could possibly take this line (maybe even KQo or Q8s).
Then the question is that what type of hands do we want to call? Well ideally those which do block his value or at least are not blocking his bluffs. It would be nice to block Qx, but we barely have some Qx in this line, Maybe A2s,J9s,T9s.JJ,TT.. any thoughts?
My question is also would you expect from a regular to be balanced/underbluffing/overbluffing on the river?
P.S. maybe there is also an option to block bet really small on this river, but still it is not a solution in general, because we are still going to have some checking range on the river
Loading 4 Comments...
OTF u shouldn't be range betting, that being said u mostly should want to cbet bigger and more polarized, so this hand makes a perfect x/call. As played it's just a call even ag overbet, u're very high in ur range and he can have whole bunch of bluffs.
BB can call variety of hands preflop depending on BTN strategy. But I think he lacks strong hands(99/QQ/Q9o 2pairs,AQ). Nevertheless he still connected here with KT,JT, 77 etc type of stuff.
Betting 1/3 or 2/3 is fine, after that this hand is trivial call down because you range rather weak and strong 9x can valuebet river yourself. His line saying that it is well played Qx or binged river, I don't mind folding because usually people tend to bluff with smaller size into weak range with plenty of snap folds
Thanks guys:)
I called and he showed up with 22, so probably just sth random.. I think he is not gonna value bet with this sizing with Qx often enough. Maybe next time I can take into a consideration explo folding...
Btw would you rather call this river against a reg or vs a fish?
To be honest I would slightly prefer to call vs a fishy player since I can imagine more bluffs, I mean regs are in general really tight when it comes to bluffing on the river. Also another reason is that I think fishy players will not bet all the flush draws on the turn compared with regs who are stabbing the turn pretty blindly with plenty of bluffs.
I would tend to check flop.
Rest of the hand seems ok. I would probably look to fold river, but calling is fine. I would maybe bet A9s, maybe K9s on the flop with small size, so those hands would make better calls on the river. Having an 8 in your hand is not great, but not super relevant either because 87 will likely bet turn. That said, it's hard to find better hands in your range to call. Maybe something like QTs could take this line.
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