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facing a XR on drawy board

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facing a XR on drawy board

UTG: $75.06
HJ: $17.67
CO: $50
BN: $70.73 (Hero)
SB: $95.12
BB: $52.06
Preflop ($0.75) (6 Players)
Hero was dealt 9 8
UTG folds, HJ folds, CO raises to $1.50, Hero calls $1.50, SB folds, BB folds
Flop ($3.75) K 9 5 (2 Players)
CO bets $2.14, Hero calls $2.14
Turn ($8.03) K 9 5 7 (2 Players)
CO checks, Hero bets $5.13, CO raises to $15.50, Hero raises to $67.09, and is all in, CO calls $30.86, and is all in
River ($126.61) K 9 5 7 2 (2 Players)
Final Pot
CO has A A CO wins $98.25

Hey guys,

There is this situation, I can't figure out the best play. The Villain is a Reg, but I only have 50 hands against him...

(I 4bet push on Turn as I believe he would balance his draws. If we flat call him, I expect him to go broke on any blank River - whether he has nuts or busted draw)

Any advice?

5 Comments

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ItsToothPasteISwear 11 years, 2 months ago

Id fold pre flop for sure. I think your turn play is just massive spew. Im not quite sure what you are trying to accomplish, if you think hes bluffing a bunch and will go broke on any river, then why are you shoving the turn? Youd be much better off calling and then calling good rivers, as you dont want him to fold JT or whatever to your turn jam. I think mostly its just a value raise tho, and you are crushed by his value range. Id prolly fold the turn, cuz im not calling a river blank, and its close but I dont quite think we have the odds vs his value range even with our 3-9 outs (depending on his hand)

bdon22 11 years, 2 months ago

Pre-flop I'd fold but call or 3-bet 98s depending on how squeeze heavy the blinds are.

Flop call is ok.

Turn I would check back since TT-QQ/weak Kx/better 9's are check/calling this turn and we can't get value from worse. We don't really need to protect our hand against much either as villain rarely has a diamond draw.

If villain is really balancing his bluffs here like you say, then he would just 2 or 3-barrel with hands like Axdd/JTdd rather than C/R (at least I would anyway).

As played OTT we are getting just under 3:1 after being CR'ed. Most of our outs are dirty so it's actually more of a reverse implied odds spot. I'd just fold.

whysoeasy 11 years, 2 months ago

I would seriously consider folding a K turn (and surely KyQd KyJd). People just don't bluff raise turn often enough on average  so vs unknow I consider a turn raise is very strong until he shows me that his turn raise frequency is a lot higher than average.

I made an alias with the 10 full stacks reg I have the most hands on and they c/r turn 5.7% and raise turn ip 11% these frequency are very low and if you couple these with there 61.5% average turn All in EV we can consider they really aren't bluffing often.

dynosoar 11 years, 2 months ago

with 89 our value lies in position. 3b pre or fold unless we have info to pursuade us otherwise.

ott, check. we dont have value in betting now, check for sd value, reevaluate bluffcatching/folding. i know it sucks because we dont rep much, but we dont already, and our hand has some sd value with how things played out and fold to a bigger river bet with no info.

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