Facing a strange raise with an old TP OTR. 100nl
Posted by WM2K
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WM2K
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Low Stakes
Facing a strange raise with an old TP OTR. 100nl
1 fold, BTN raises to $2, 1 fold, WM2K calls $1 Flop ($4.50, 2 players) 
WM2K checks, BTN bets $3.50, WM2K calls $3.50 Turn ($11.50, 2 players)
WM2K checks, BTN checks River ($11.50, 2 players)
WM2K bets $8.50, BTN raises to $25, $16.5 to WM2K ($97.69)?Villains a decent reg stealing about 55% OTB. OTR I figure I should be value betting as I beat Tx hands that checked it back and I can represent a fair amount of bluffs with the busted FD. Checking to call with this hand is also reasonable though seeing as the value is likely pretty thin and I probably have a enough value bets with KT and better. I havent counted it all out though so idk for sure. Anyways I do chose to bet this time and dude raises. WTF? I mean this guy isnt retarded. He likely knows that he reps nothing. So is this some goofy played JJ? 6x that decided to check for who knows what reason? JT? Maybe he s turning a bad T into a bluff? Idk such a bizarre raise I m really not sure.
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It would be interesting to know your stat for stabbing the river after it goes check check. (that would be real important to determine how loose he could be here or if he only raises for value and what hands he could check back the turn with)
His river valueraising range is hard to determine but I give it a shot: 44, 66, TT, JJ(+), AJ, KJ, JT, (78, 86, 96s, 64s).
We lose againt every hand in that range obviously.
Now we have to think about how many hands he will turn into a bluff that he didn't want to bet on the turn.
I don't think he will check flush draws or gutshots on the turn behind so if we put AQ, AK(without AcKc) into his riverraisingrange we would have 27,55% equity and we need ~27% to break even.
http://www.fpppro.com/fold-equity-calculator.php
Input: $97,69/0%/$11,5/$25
--> Villain must fold at least 90% of the time.
So a shove would be pretty breakeven if he would only call with: 44, 66, TT, JJ, 64s. (only if AQ+ is in his river raising range, if it's not in then he would only have to call 66, TT, JJ, 64s to make it breakeven)
I m not sure exactly what my river stabbing frequency is it s reasonably high I m sure. I prolly defend a good idk 55-60% hands from the bb vs a button this loose. However I do c/f the flop a ton. I probably should be calling with this hand given how many gutters and fds I d be taking a shot with on the river. Idk this spot is so weird and I m really unsure what to do.
What level does this player think on? Have you seen him bluff raise a river before? If not I think you should fold. He has to bluff raise mroe than 36% of the time for a call to break even. Without knowing that he is playing a balanced game against you, I assume his frequencies are skewed one way or another. Either he is bluff raising 50%+, or 5%.
Generally, villains range consists of nut hands (JJ,TT, 6x), thin value hands (JT,Jx), and bluffs. Depending on how large these portions are we have a more or less profitable shove. As described above, I think thin value hands are likely and nut hands unlikely. Therefore, a shove may be profitable (given he doesn't call light). Which hand to use and whether we should shove here at all is a different question. For a call to be profitable we would have to assume less thin value hands and more bluffs. I think this is very unlikely. So, we should not call.
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