Facing a shove with 3rd nutters. 100nl
Posted by WM2K
Posted by
WM2K
posted in
Low Stakes
Facing a shove with 3rd nutters. 100nl
WM2K raises to $3, 4 folds, BB calls $2 Flop ($6.50, 2 players) 
BB bets $3.50, WM2K calls $3.50 Turn ($13.50, 2 players)
BB bets $7, WM2K raises to $28, BB goes all-in $133.26, $105.26 to WM2K ($144.26)?Villain is a loose passive 25/11 and I only have 120 hands on him. He tanked a wee bit before jamming whatever this is worth. For whatever its worth this is probably the worst hands I raise with here. Comments like about the raise are welcomed but I was thinking he can def call with worse and I m not going to face a shove very often.
A quick stove for your enjoyment. kq,tt,99,JJ vs this we have 28%. We need 38%. :S
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i would make it bigger pre since you re UTG + every one is deep
i would also make it bigger flop since its your utg range and so you have more value in your CB range
turn : not an easy spot, i would also raise to gain value because lots of river can make him afraid if he has 2 pairs + now
when he tank its often value even if his play is weird, but he can value worse than us
to me he does only have QKs preflop
Board: 9s Tc 3d Jd
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 53.497% 53.50% 00.00% 306 0.00 { 8c7c }
Hand 1: 46.503% 46.50% 00.00% 266 0.00 { JJ-99, KQs }
you said we need 38% so we have to call
if you only put KQs we have 15% more than needed
so even if we keep your KQo range and put some combo draw turn with FDs or some TP hands who are bad played we are ahead
it hurts because its deep but i think all in one it makes it a call
+ you are IP if you lose your stakc to take it back
i thinks that call is slighty better than fold but not a big difference
and i would try to stack him of before others so i would take the flip
being deep and IP vs a recreatiuonnal player will make me take the flip
being OOP i maybe wont take it since it will be more difficult later to get my sack back if i lose
JJ-99, 33, KQ, JT, 87. We have 47,50% equity against that range.
I'm still trying to wrap my head around how KQ is in his flop donking range, or how often it is there. Even if you're done with the hand analysis, I would reallly appreciate knowing the stat.
I fold.
1) a passive fish won´t always lead out with a gutshot
2) a fish will > 0% not directly shove allin with the absolute nuts here, namely KQ, he will sometimes just reraise to like 60$
3) a fish won`t ever fold a set or top 2 here and since the board`s wet and fish fear flushdraws a lot he will never slowplayd his valuerange on the turn
so here`s my range for the fishy villain:
Equity Win Tie
MP2 47.50% 37.94% 9.56% 8c7c
MP3 52.50% 42.93% 9.56% JJ-99, 33, KQs, JTs, 87s, KQo, JTo, 87o
- so i`m not dancing around the table full of happiness, but i call.
But seriously, I stick with JT being too optimistic - when he shoves > 100bb on the turn, with the straight (or at least sets in our range) being so obvious. So, if I take your range, strip off only JT and let anything else unchanged, our equity drops below the treshold we need. If I reduce KQo by 50% we slightly get the correct odds ... so it seems like a spot where we probably make a very slightly winning call at best but might make a very brutal losing call at worst.
So, let´s make a mathematical "experiment": Villain´s range is either A or B. Against A (optimistic range) we have 47.5% equity, against range B (pessimistic) we have 28%. In case A we win ~27bb by calling, in case B we lose ~27bb by calling. So, if we weigh both ranges as equally likely we should fold - as we don´t win anything. The "funny" thing is that I think that both assumptions are extreme, but no matter how we fine-tune those ranges, the middle will probably always be 0EV. So, I don´t think folding is ever a mistake in this spot.
Now I´m waiting for somebody coming and telling that in case of 0EV we should call to take a note. :D
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