Facing a potsize bet on a paired river
Posted by MatoStar
Posted by
MatoStar
posted in
Low Stakes
Facing a potsize bet on a paired river
Hey guys!
Yesterday I got some action and few spots when I didnt know how to play correctly. This is one of those hands.
Pre and flop is standard for me. On the turn I think I could bet for protection (from FDs, overcards), but then I would end it up with check/folding a ton of rivers. So decided to check/call and try to induce some of his air.
The river card decreased his Qx combos, so it should be a good for me then!? But he bet a pot and I was like tanking for a 30seconds and afterwards I made a fold just based on his stats (36/35 after 65hands, which is pretty small sample, but I would say his calling range after decent sample would be much on a tighter side.. or maybe I am just too optimistic), but also that I assume the average reg at these stakes would call with my exact hand and even with a hands like JJ-88. That being said I think that he was trying to get max value from those hands.
Would you choose some different line?
And would you call this river?
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Flop can argue for both strat's don't mind x
Turn can again argue for both strat's, you say when you bet you need to xf a lot of rivers not sure I agree can still bluffcatch this combo some of the time depending on runout
As played villain reps 44 or Qx that xback flop, possible bluffs are hh combos and random things. Sample is too small to say anything I think, looks like villain does not call much pre meaning not many Qx, would call my 4x, this one not sure
Flop can bet or check call, nothing wrong with either of line
Turn can bet or check call.
I feel like we have 1,5 streets here turn and river if decided to bet turn. He will have some Qx, 88 -JJ with some % as well as 33,55,66 and worse 7x. It make sense for him to bluffcathing wide here, because our bluffing range can be enormous. Vs river pot I'm snap calling close to top of my range, not much info to make folds based on reads.
So do you think he has enough bluffs with the pot size river bet to justify a call? (Since we can't dominate any portion of his value range)
I would start to bet OTF with your holding. You can get a call from a worse 7x for sure.
The problem here which the flop check, is that his air have a lot of equity against you, so you aren't inducing anything really beside encourage him to outdraw you pretty easily.
If you would have JJ instead of A7 your reasoning would make more sense, but imho, you are overcomplicating things and leaving money on the table, especially at these stake where people cannot find the fold button
Okay, if bet the flop, which sizing would you use?
And if he would check/call the flop how would you play the rest of the hand and why?
Because you know, if I start to change my line already on the flop, it's mandatory to know what to do on the later streets :-)
Flop - Both options are fine [Check or Bet] and either small or medium size is fine if you decide to bet. Flop looks good.
Turn - IP's EV increases on this turn. Would be choosing the check option almost all the time. Call after check looks good.
River - This is a decent card for your range. Check/Call with this combo would be the play. You unblock most of his bluffs. Yes, he can merge a little to reduce the EV of hands like this but his stats point towards him being aggressive which tells me he is capable of bluffing enough here to make this call at least break even. If he goes too thin and decides to bet [88-99] for value then you can shift your strategy to one with more Check/Calls and Check/Raises to exploit him.
All said and done you played it okay. I would choose the sticky line as he is going to have a harder time exploiting you than you will countering him.
You are a beast, sir!
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