Facing 3-barreled Donk
Posted by DeerNBeer
Posted by
DeerNBeer
posted in
Low Stakes
Facing 3-barreled Donk
PokerStars Hand #217558316015: Hold'em No Limit ($0.05/$0.10 USD) -
BU: ($4.48 in chips)
SB: VILLAIN ($9.45 in chips)
BB: ($6.24 in chips)
MP: ($10.18 in chips)
CO: HERO ($12.93 in chips)
* HOLE CARDS
Dealt to HERO [Ks Td]
MP: folds
HERO: raises $0.20 to $0.30
BU: folds
VILLAIN: calls $0.25
BB: folds
FLOP [Qs 4h Th] POT: $0.70
VILLAIN: bets $0.33
HERO: calls $0.33
TURN [Qs 4h Th] [2h] POT: $1.33
VILLAIN: bets $0.80
HERO: calls $0.80
RIVER * [Qs 4h Th 2h] [Ah] POT: $2.93
VILLAIN: bets $1.90
HERO: ?
Unknown villain. Population read is donk bets to me scream mid pair/low pair hands with a scary card on the board (the Q here). I call down 2 streets planning to reassess on the third. Any heart gets there so that brought me to the fold, but I think if the 4th heart doesn't land I call. I know SB going to defend a lot of broadways in his range so he has a lot of Qx, but donks from this population at these stakes are holding a T more often than not and I outkick a lot of Tx villain shows up with. Im probably too fixated on this donk bet=mid pair philosophy. Where, if anywhere, should I have found the fold button?
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So, on the river you just fold it imo. You just get there with so much better stuff that you don't need to call any pair probably. If you call the Turn with all middle pair + gutshot and raise flushes after raising 2pair + on the flop you'll get to that river with 55% of range being 2 pair + and if you are to call pairs you'd much rather have a Q or an overpair. So when you see it you have JJ, KK and Qx around 25% of the so that makes for 80% of the range being better to call that KTo.
Flop seems a clear call.
Now turn is the interesting one. It will come down to how you play the flop I guess. Think that if OTF you raise a decent amount of Ax of hearts and overpair+ it's a call OTT but if you decide to go with a call only strategy OTF it becomes very close. When you think that he as a T or the flush think it becomes a fold.
It depends a lot on that flop strategy because when you raise those strong hands the KT becomes higher in your range so you'll need to call it more but if you don't it will go down and are more confortable folding. (I know you already know this and anyone that reads this also does (probably), but can't hurt to write ig)
Honestly, I don't like calling the river on any card that doesn't improve it, KT is kinda bottom of range that calls turn and if it doesn't improve it's garbage now. Unless villain bluffs way way way too much I'm folding it on any non K or T.
i did end up folding but i would have stuck around to see showdown if the 4th heart didn't land. Are there any river cards that would be a good spot to bluff raise?
this is again assuming donk bets are typically a sign of a weak made hand Mudkip
Yeah, and that is what pushes one over the edge to call, but you do block some weak made hands and you really have to think about how much % "tipically" means. From my experience there will be a lot of flush draws by players like that there, my analysis was more geared to show that you have many better hands to call once you reach that spot so unless you are extremely extremely confident in that read you don't have to call that specific combo to make money in that situation
Calling 'hoping' he doesn't fire is no good. Make a note and move on; sometimes raise flop, sometimes raise turn, but in this hand fold on the turn without a h. Donks generally aren't 'middle pr' as much as they're 'weakness'. But here he barrels big and you have 0 backup. Calling turn is a leak.
Tariq Haji had a recent Video where he discussed this topic and made an analysis of the 100NL ignition pool and his donk-tendencies. He provided a chart at the end of this video with the conclusion that these bigger sized donks are mostly top pair or air.
with this in mind i guess calling flop and turn is fine, but almost everything of his air on the flop got there otr,
I watched that video too and his findings were that 1/2 pot flop leads tended to usually be weighted towards TP and second pair hands with top pair being about 50% more likely than second pair. I've got his data slides up now and 73/144 half pot sized donks were top pair hands with 44/144 being second or third pair.
Given those findings our flop peel is fine/standard, but I really think we should just be folding the turn without a heart in our hand when villain doesn't slow down and increases his sizing to around 60% pot. That probably would have been my instinct in-game and I think Tariq's findings back that up. It's a classic slightly ahead/way behind spot (with us being way behind, occasionally even drawing dead, the vast majority of the time) and I expect our overall equity against villain's range to be pretty poor.
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