EVs of opening range.
Posted by GMjunior
Posted by
GMjunior
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Low Stakes
EVs of opening range.
my pool stats SB vs BB are 30%call, 11% 3-bet and 37% fold to c-bet. 6% raise c-bet. Hence EV raise= (.11)(-3) + (1)(.59) + (.30)EVcall
EVcall = (6)(.37) -(5)(.06) + (.57) EVcontinue = - .93 assuming our worst 2 cards have 0 equity when called which is reasonable OOP.
EV raise = -.019.
We would I think also have to account for the EV of folding at zoom being positive. (Funniliy enough I think if you are losing at more than 1.9BB/100 it is higher EV to raise any 2 cards than to fold always).
Beyond this if we want to profit from any two cards EV continue must be more than -4.9 BB. I'm not really sure how to proceed. If we have 0% equity our EV is -5BB so how much equity do we need for it to be -4.9BB?
Another note is that I would suspect pool is relatively inelastic between 1/4 pot and 1/3 pot although this is speculation. This has also made me realise that there could be an error in my fold to c-bet stat as I believe people bet bigger than 1/3 at my stakes normally and perhaps my tracker is accounting for hands played between 2 villains even on zoom?I personally dont play big bets SB vs BB except on AKx boards. Ok so I think it is clear raising any 2 cards is not profitable. Am still interested in how to solve the question above regarding EV and equity though.
My guess is that (-5)(1 - W) + (5)(W) = -4.9
-5 +W +5W = -4.9
6W =1/10
W=1/60
I think we definitely win by the hand checking down 1/60 th of the time even with our worst 2 cards. Not sure if bets effect this because balance is kind out the window at this point so maybe we don't achieve this against someone who knows are strategy but I think people are overly passive at the micros. So we will auto profit if people are inelastic to flop sizing (not sure about the fold to c-bet stat).
Also EVfold >0 for a winning player so also less clear. Would be interested in any opinions/ corrections.
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Your math is a bit difficult to follow and generally these multi street math equations are not super useful and easy to mess up. If your opponents fold 60% then you can raise any 2 and just throw your cards away on the flop and breakeven, so vs 59% fold you can definitely raise any 2 if they won't adjust.
As for where the line is vs more reasonable but too tight defense (say 50% fold 10% 3bet) it's difficult to say without a solver but probably pretty damn wide - if someone has a big preflop leak in a super common situation they have many postflop leaks as well!
I would zoom out and start there.
What is your winrate when you steal from SB? Overall BB/100 and what is sample size?
I think I was trying to make myself indifferent to 0BB/100 when I should have been aiming for -50BB/100. So yeah basically SB is outragously profitable in my games. My winrate with RFI from the SB is 105BB/100 over 600 hands. Running marginally above all-in EV. My true winrate from the SB is -17BB/100. Think should for sure be expanding my opening range as it looks to be one of the most poorly defended nodes in the game tree. Might do some anaysis of BTN vs BB next
Yeah, so this is why I look to zoom out and look at the big picture. 100bb/100 Raising First In from SB is extremely high. I would expect it to converge to somewhere between 20 to 40bb/100 as your sample gets bigger.
Your overall winrate in SB is quite good. Well done.
BB (you) vs BTN or SB is a very good place to focus. Look at how you are doing when facing a RFI when in BB. Look at how you are doing when you call a RFI. Look at how you are doing when you 3b. Find spots where you call a 2b and can check raise more often on certain textures.
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