EQ distribution and how solvers think
Posted by 1BuckPlease
Posted by 1BuckPlease posted in Mid Stakes
EQ distribution and how solvers think
Hello Guys!
I am paying with flopzilla and GTO+ to get a better understanding of eq distribution and bet sizes and maybe get the big picture of a solver's mind. My goal is to develop my understanding of ranges and appropriate bet sizes in different situations. Plenty of factors matter, like raw-eq, nutted-eq, vulnerability, etc. vs villain's range. I think, I understand the theory behind the connection of bet sizing with range structure, then a spot appears and makes me uncertain instantly. Let's take a look at the following spot:
It's a 3bet pot between SB and CO with the following ranges (you can copy-paste them into GTO+ or flopzilla):
Flop: Tc9d6c
SB
AA,AKs,AQs,AJs,ATs,A9s,A5s,AKo,KK,KQs,KJs,KTs,AQo,QQ,QJs,QTs,JJ,JTs,TT,99,88,[30.25%]A8s[/30.25%],[22.25%]A7s[/22.25%],[56.86%]A4s[/56.86%],[2.103%]A3s[/2.103%],[18.69%]K9s[/18.69%],[97.52%]KQo[/97.52%],[51.4%]AJo[/51.4%],[41.38%]KJo[/41.38%],[31.96%]T9s[/31.96%],[48.75%]77[/48.75%],[53.17%]66[/53.17%],[23.12%]55[/23.12%]
CO
AQs,AJs,KQs,KJs,QJs,99,[0.097%]AKs[/0.097%],[75.61%]ATs[/75.61%],[33.59%]A9s[/33.59%],[6.161%]A8s[/6.161%],[72.41%]A5s[/72.41%],[36.67%]A4s[/36.67%],[2.155%]A3s[/2.155%],[54.93%]AKo[/54.93%],[75.14%]KTs[/75.14%],[0.862%]K9s[/0.862%],[64.72%]AQo[/64.72%],[12.23%]KQo[/12.23%],[32.1%]QQ[/32.1%],[88.83%]QTs[/88.83%],[66.51%]JJ[/66.51%],[91.07%]JTs[/91.07%],[33.33%]J9s[/33.33%],[96.68%]TT[/96.68%],[57.27%]T9s[/57.27%],[28.09%]98s[/28.09%],[86.27%]88[/86.27%],[29.26%]87s[/29.26%],[84.53%]77[/84.53%],[55.98%]76s[/55.98%],[77.81%]66[/77.81%],[33.33%]65s[/33.33%],[62.86%]55[/62.86%],[66.67%]54s[/66.67%],[35.45%]44[/35.45%],[36.29%]33[/36.29%],[46.72%]22[/46.72%]
So some statements:
* SB has a very tiny raw equitiy advantage here.
* SB has a nut eq disadvantage (straights, sets, two pairs) with 8,23 vs 10,55 combos, but has an advantage in the number ov overpair combos.
* SB has a positional disadvantage
* SB's value range (top pair +) is vulnerable
So my first guess was, SB is checking the most if his range, if not the whole. I run the sim and was a bit shocked what i saw. SB is checking ~50% of the time and betting BIG 35% of the time. Then I took a dive into the ranges in flopzilla and realized that if we filter out top pair+ hands, SB has a huge range advantage, but most of his holdings are very vulnerable. But we are out of position and there are a ton of bad turns for us to continue or just reach SD. With large cbets, we will sitting in the pot with a smallish SPR against a nut heavy range. Opinions guys?
What do you think, what would happen if we swapped the ranges?
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