Easy fold trips at river?
Posted by simonwins
Posted by
simonwins
posted in
Low Stakes
Easy fold trips at river?
Blinds: $0.10/$0.20 (6 Players)
CO: $20.71
BN: $10.77
SB: $21.22
BB: $18.67
UTG: $20.00
MP: $26.51 (Hero)
BN: $10.77
SB: $21.22
BB: $18.67
UTG: $20.00
MP: $26.51 (Hero)
Preflop
($0.30)
Hero is MP with
J
K
, , ,
Flop
($1.50)
J
2
7
,
Turn
($3.00)
J
2
7
3
, ,
V seems to be nitty with 16/12 and 6%3B (500 Hands). When he raises the turn, I'm kind of sure that he is raising 22 or 77?
River
($13.00)
J
2
7
3
J
, ,
Easy fold?
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He's got a range of like 77 and some flush draws, I'd call.
Just because his preflop stats are nitty doesn't mean he can't be a spewtard post. If anything, the fact he is playing this tight leads me to believe his postflop ability is very weak (if it wasn't, he wouldn't be this tight) so when he's repping literally 77 for value I'm just calling him down. Yeah it does seem like a bad river to bluff but that's our interpretation. We don't know if he doesn't just monkey it in with all his club draws here and in the end there will just be more of them.
If you think he never floats stuff like KQcc, AQcc, AKcc and raises them OTT then just fold. You need him to have 2 combos of bluffs basically.
Even against a range of KcQc,AcQc,AcKc, 77, 22, JJ this is a easy fold OTT, against that range we are lucky to have 25% equity.
Baluga fold, especially vs a 16/12...
"baluga" would be x/r turn, this is just a raise :)
Maybe you should search "Baluga Therom "
Baluga theorem states:
Call it the brokenstar theorem then god damnit lol, x/r is wayyy worse than raise
If you are kind of sure his turn raising range is 77&22, you should fold turn. However, I think he can still have KQcc,AQcc,T9cc type of hands OTT for bluffs and if he follows them through OTR it's an easy call. Also, he might've sensed weakness from your small ½pot betsizing. I think the main considerations are: How wide does he call preflop? (Does he even have 22 here) How agressive is he postflop? (AGG% Raise CB% stats) Does he fast play some of his sets OTF?
TL;DR:
Against a passive nitty player: Easy fold.
Against a tight agressive player: Easy call.
He has a very good point
I agree it's a major concideration, but how did that rather arrogant comment help OP?
I'm on board with that if he never calls with all his AXs. If he does I think we get there pretty fine.
I wouldn't really include 33/22 so he has 3 combos of 77 and 1 combo of JJ (which I would argue probably doesn't raise turn either, but certainly possible). Anyways, only need 2 bluffs to be fine with these assumptions. Many players often don't raise turn with draws though because they are in position and have over cards. Obviously in terms of GTO/range defense this is a snap call, but if you think he NEVER raises FD ott, or if you include hands like 33/22 into his range, just fold. But, it is a pretty "whatever" spot and depends on your reads. Worst case scenario you have like 25% equity, best case something like 40%.
our read he is a Nit
Just because he is tight doesn't mean he doesn't raise...
The problem is all his bluffs have close to 30% equity against us, and we aredrawing dead vs value range
OTT? Yeah I spose. Could also add in hands like T9s. Guess you're right and it is closer to fold and pry jus fold turn
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