Looks very close to me, I would be heavily influenced by how I thought he played preflop (does he have Ts9s and all JTs? what about QQ?) and whether I thought he was bad enough to ever spaz with AQ.

^this, but I don't think it's all that close at 25nl. I assume that you ran into QQ and otherwise you wouldn't even post this hand. :D

Yeah Im not folding, but it might be my leak. Assuming its an unknown, its either somewhat smallish mistake if he shoves better hands only, or a huge blunder if he sometimes shows up with AJ. Obv his line is strong, since this board smashes our range, but we still have equity even vs his nutted hands and his preflop line might indicate that he isnt top reg. He can also have god knows how many Qxss combos...

we need 32.1%
We have
~17.5-18% vs JTs, QQ
~29% vs JTs, QQ, AK
50% vs JTs, QQ, AQ

Yes, I'd put draws on most part of combos. qsxs jsxs tsxs.. Villain was unknown, he could have a lot of things... Against some very specific players I could fold

V can't really have QQ here since he just called a raise OTB so I would think AQ and all spade combos + complete spazz's are more likely his range.