Dubious Flop Call Leads to Turn and River Fun

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Posted by posted in Low Stakes

Dubious Flop Call Leads to Turn and River Fun

BB: $26.35
UTG: $8.78
HJ: $25
CO: $10.56
BN: $34.48
SB: $42.06
HJ is a new player who posted pre flop but has a very 2+2 SN.
Preflop ($0.35) (6 Players)
Hero was dealt 6 8
UTG folds, HJ checks, CO folds, BN folds, SB calls $0.15, Hero checks
Flop ($0.50) 6 5 3 (3 Players)
SB bets $0.50, Hero calls $0.50, HJ raises to $1.25, SB folds, Hero calls $0.75
I should probably just fold this OOP but he can he ever have a flush draw with this size raise?
How much does that matter anyway?
Turn ($3.50) T (2 Players)
Hero checks, HJ bets $1.95, Hero raises to $6.00, HJ calls $4.05
Initiate launch sequence.
River ($15.50) A (2 Players)
Launch sequence delayed because I have $18 left (and have to jam IMO) and that will purchase a pretty high quality 12 pack.

9 Comments

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benzooka 12 years, 4 months ago
REALLY unfamiliar with this stake's trends.
Why do you think he can never have a flush draw; could he be trying to purchase a cheap check to him on the turn to get to see both cards type of thing? Could he have limped an overpair and be scared of the connectivity of the board and now just raises small? Could he not be thinking at all and doesn't want to lose anybody with a monster?

My hand reading raider scanner is spinning and I'm just not picking up any blips. What the hell is raising this small on a board this wet that he limped?

How's he going to play different turn and river cards which each group of his small flop raising range? How can we best respond from all the options?

Feels like it's all ahead of us though, and we are oop which is just going to make our already tricky hand tough to play. I'm leaning towards a flop fold, because I just think even though we are getting a great "absolute" price, I don't forsee any comfortable turn/river plans on any cards that aren't a 6 or and 8.

Would like to hear more detailed thoughts on his range, your percieved range, and your actual range in your thoughts to really get to building plans that revolve around why to do something instead of what to do :)
benzooka 12 years, 4 months ago
Feels like his range as a whole is pretty much destroying ours equity wise with two streets to play though is what I meant by "feels like it's all ahead of us though"
Sam Lang 12 years, 4 months ago
I would just fold flop, even if we think we're getting odds vs his range it's just a very hard hand to play OOP and is not going to lead to profitable situations on the turn/river. Also think he can def. have a flushdraw otf and be slowplaying b/c turn.
Sean Lefort 12 years, 4 months ago
I think arguments can be made for like any play on any street here basically lol.

FLOP: Calling the original bet is fine but I don't mind raising for the sake of avoiding having to play it as a bluff-catcher against some pretty unknown ranges. Its a strange play to make with top pair essentially turning it into a bluff, but I think it makes a lot of sense in this scenario.

Once we've called and get raised and SB folds, I'd normally fold but getting 3:1 I think a call can be justified. We definitely won't realize a very high % of our equity but I do believe that we should be able to see maybe ~70%+ of our ~30%+ equity yielding a need of ~21%+ equity. So its pretty close.

TURN: I think we're too weak to chk/call and understand the inclination to turn such a hand into a bluff but I think he's just simply going to have a strong hand a high % of the time and we're best chk/folding. I think he'll definitely have a flush a decent % of the time, esp hands like 4X/7Xhh.
James Hudson 12 years, 4 months ago
+1 to all of this except raising the flop. When HJ posts and then raises two people on the flop I think he's got something that he won't be folding until the river a lot of the time if he even finds a fold there.
Tyler Forrester 12 years, 4 months ago
The general rule of thumb for any sort of hold'em is if an opponents distribution is strong, don't bluff. I think this hand violates that basic principle.
Adrian Milroy 12 years, 4 months ago
Raise or Fold the flop lead Dan. There's no card in the deck (other than an 8 or 6) than can make you happy, or not make a turn call sketchy. This is much more pertinent here because its a multiway pot. This way, you play the hand very straightforwardly and probably avoid doing crazy things on future streets :)

As played assuming you don't want to let go of the toppest of all pairs on the flop:

Fold turn - HJ is repping 2pr+ and can't really be bluffing due to pretty much a min raise into 2 players. Don't try to make 25NL players fold hands like that...Maybe if there's a 1card straight or flush, but that's it.

Now that you've gone this far, don't turn your move into a complete waste of money by giving up on this uber strong line. One problem I have that is really the worst option a poker player can do, is crafting a big bluff and then wussing out for reasons of worry that don't have to do with the logic of the hand. We are pretty much wasting money because the move won't work unless we follow through. You don't need to ship here. I'd say 12-13$ will have the same effect. If he calls, you won't have enough money for a 12, but you'll be able to get yourself one nice imported beer. Cheers.
Phil Galfond 12 years, 4 months ago
I completely agree with Adrian. The turn bluff on it's own doesn't show a profit, but combined with the river jam, it very well could.

I personally think it's pretty rare that we run into a flush here, and I think you repped one incredibly well. Bombs away!

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