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Doubt about cbet bluff on turn, SQZ pot vs fish

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Posted by posted in Low Stakes

Doubt about cbet bluff on turn, SQZ pot vs fish

Blinds: $0.05/$0.10 (6 Players) CO: $9.12
BN: $18.61
SB: $10.14 (Hero)
BB: $10.40
UTG: $11.79
MP: $5.71
Preflop ($0.15) Hero is SB with Q K
UTG raises to $0.30, MP folds, CO calls $0.30, BN folds, Hero raises to $1.20, BB folds, UTG folds, CO calls $0.90
I wanted to isolate the fish, who called in CO.
Flop ($2.80) 2 9 9
Hero bets $1.33, CO calls $1.33
Turn ($5.46) 2 9 9 A
Hero bets $2.59, CO raises to $6.59 and is all in, Hero folds
I'm not sure If this cbet is correct, due to that Ace hits his range better than mine.
Final Pot CO wins $10.09
Rake is $0.55

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MentalRunUp 8 years, 7 months ago

I have a couple points that may or may not be obvious.

  • Across the 150 hands you have, villain plays about half the time and is not position-sensitive.
  • Even though villain gets to the flop with a ton of hands, he's more or less still defending flops correctly, just with too many hands from preflop that can't be really used. He's continuing with backdoor draws most likely. You don't have a ton of hands on his flop actions, but that's what I'm trying to infer from that.
  • Because the villain is calling too much preflop and then calling too
    much on the flop, it's probably not good to double barrel this
    villain with air. It's probably better to just have a wider value
    range with some high equity bluffs, like KQc QJc. TJc. Otherwise,
    villain calls with any pair and backdoors, gets to the turn with a small stack relative to the pot, and probably still moves forward on a lot of turns.

Maybe the correct play is to take a bet/check/bet line on this flop texture. Or maybe a check back on the flop to go bet turn bet river, but maybe even that's not good because of the same reasons it's not working to double barrel this spot. I don't pretend this is definitive at all, but that's what I'm thinking.

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