Do you call this huge shove preflop with QQ?
Posted by GeoPur
Posted by
GeoPur
posted in
Low Stakes
Do you call this huge shove preflop with QQ?
Blinds: $0.01/$0.02 (8 Players)
BB: $2.00
UTG: $2.25
UTG+1: $2.00
MP: $0.80
MP+1: $1.58
CO: $2.02 (Hero)
BN: $2.23
SB: $2.09
UTG: $2.25
UTG+1: $2.00
MP: $0.80
MP+1: $1.58
CO: $2.02 (Hero)
BN: $2.23
SB: $2.09
Preflop
($0.03)
Hero is CO with
Q
Q
, , , , , , , , ,
I did the math and we need 40% pot odds in order to make the call. Villain at 600 hands at 9max has overall vpip.pfr of 17/13 and 3bet is 5 but the sample size is 11 times out of 221 times. I think 11 times is not a big sample in order to take this stat very seriously.
If villain has the range of QQ+ and AK here then we have exactly 40% equity. Such a huge 5bet imo would not be done with AKo and maybe QQ as well(not sure though about that). I think I should have folded.
If villain has the range of QQ+ and AK here then we have exactly 40% equity. Such a huge 5bet imo would not be done with AKo and maybe QQ as well(not sure though about that). I think I should have folded.
Flop
($4.42)
J
2
K
Turn
($4.42)
J
2
K
5
River
($4.42)
J
2
K
5
3
Final Pot
UTG
wins and shows three of a kind, Kings.
CO lost and shows a pair of Queens.
UTG wins $4.04
Rake is $0.15
CO lost and shows a pair of Queens.
UTG wins $4.04
Rake is $0.15
Loading 5 Comments...
This is a 4-bet shove, not a 5-bet. 3-bet stat is ok to look at, but not directly relevant.
In general, when a very tight player opens from UTG+1 and then 4-bet shoves, you should expect a very tight range.
If he only has QQ+, AK, then it's ok to fold (the call is breakeven without rake/slightly losing with rake). If you think he has JJ in his range, then you can call. Unfortunately, there's no way to be sure because I don't know the Villain.
Yes it's a 4bet, I did a mistake. I didn't think about this with the rake. Thank you for the answer! :)
Villain is a tight player and the 4 bet is not that huge if you look at effective stacks. Think after 200 hands 3 bet is saying something already certainly together with his preflop overall tightness it is also a multi way pot so he will most likely be even tighter here.
Would not be sure that AKo and QQ are in his 4 bet range in this spot so would let it go.
Definitely a fold.
3b range is super tight for starters. I expect this 4b range to be super snug. 200 hands is a pretty darn good sample. I see people making decisions off of 8 occurrences.
Folding here.
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